Pacer Data & Infrastructure Real Estate ETF

SRVR

Market cap $430M

For nearly five decades, US REITs have delivered stronger returns than broad US stocks in the 12 months following Federal Reserve easing cycles. Rate cuts may increase the attractiveness of REIT dividends, potentially making them a compelling option for investors seeking yield potential and portfolio diversification. Data centers, telecom infrastructure, and health care REITs have historically benefited the most from lower rates due to long-duration leases and capital-intensive models.

U.S. equity markets notched another series of record highs this week, surging into the weekend after surprisingly dovish commentary from Federal Reserve Chair Powell, who hinted at imminent rate cuts. Powell used his final Jackson Hole speech as Fed Chair to deliver a clear policy pivot, an unexpected reversal after months of insistence that tariff-related inflation warranted a hawkish framework. Markets were equally relieved by the policy-focused nature of Powell's speech amid speculation that the address may be used instead as a potential defiant sermon on central bank independence.

After a strong June (+2.56%), the REIT sector recovery stalled in July (-1.17%) as REITs fell to a -6.42% year-to-date return. Micro cap REITs (-0.20%) outperformed in July while mid caps (-1.18%), small caps (-1.33%) and large caps (-1.55%) averaged slightly deeper negative returns. 60.65% of REIT securities had a negative total return in July.

SRVR benefits from strong digital infrastructure growth, focusing on data centers and telecom in a sector with robust long-term tailwinds. Despite industry potential, SRVR's high portfolio concentration, elevated valuation, and weak performance versus peers justify my Hold rating. SRVR is more expensive than competitors on both expense ratio and P/E, yet it consistently underperforms alternatives like DTCR and IDGT.

A surprising solid REIT earnings season wrapped up this week. Of the 100 equity REITs that provide full-year FFO guidance, 62% raised their outlook - above the historical 55% average. Disinflation was a surprisingly common thread across second-quarter results, with the majority of the upside revisions being driven by improved expense expectations - the highest quantity of expense reductions ever. Healthcare REITs were notable upside standouts as senior housing fundamentals remained stellar, while skilled nursing REITs received some good news on the policy front via healthy CMS Medicare rate increases.

U.S. equity markets fell sharply this week, while benchmark interest rates retreated to three-month lows, after revised employment data showed that job growth was far weaker than initially reported. The BLS payrolls report showed softer-than-expected hiring in July and the steepest two-month downward revisions to jobs growth since 2020, raising concern that the Fed may be "behind the curve." The downward revisions came days after Fed Chair Powell used it as the primary evidence for "solid" labor markets, which justified the FOMC's decision to keep rates in "restrictive" territory.

Return to office mandates are providing a boost to REITs. Some deal activity has also been a tailwind. Tariffs and slowing residential rent growth remain headwinds.

Most US REITs make nearly 90% of their revenue domestically, compared to 72% for typical U.S. stocks. Healthcare, residential, and needs-based retail are less affected by trade disruptions, while office, lodging, and timber are more vulnerable. They're trading at a -2.79x earnings multiple discount to US stocks - one of the widest gaps in decades.

This post takes a closer look at the underlying mechanics that allow Realty Income and other high-quality REITs to grow their distributions over decades without compromising sustainability. While Realty Income's dividend shows the familiar stair-step pattern of monthly increases over time, what's most important is that this growth appears supported by a steadily rising AFFO base. One of the most reliable indicators of a REIT's health is its occupancy rate. This metric tells you what percentage of a REIT's total properties are currently leased and producing rental income.

US equity markets erased their post-Liberation Day sell-off this week - notching their best winning streak in two decades - as investors parsed surprisingly solid corporate earnings and employment data. A critical slate of employment data this week showed that job growth remained relatively strong in April, despite the extreme market volatility and plunge in consumer and business sentiment. The PCE Index - the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge of inflation - cooled to the lowest-level in almost five years, swinging the market narrative from "stagflation" and back towards "soft landing."