SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust

SPY

Market cap $700B

The S&P 500 reached a new record high this week, crossing the 6,900 milestone for the first time ever. However, the index experienced its largest daily loss in three weeks on Friday, ultimately leading to a weekly loss of 0.6%.

The S&P 500's high mega-cap concentration is not inherently alarming given these firms' superior profitability and scalability versus the broader index. Current mega-caps, especially the Magnificent Seven, exhibit profit margins far above the S&P 500 average.

The S&P 500 is forecasted to reach 7,500 by mid-2026 and potentially 8,000 by year-end, driven by AI, Fed easing, and resilient economic growth. My all-weather portfolio appreciated by nearly 70% in 2024 and is up by about 85% YTD in late 2025, led by AI and other high-quality tech names.

This decade keeps humiliating consensus: COVID crash, inflation shock, missing recession, Liberation Day drop. Today's AI bubble fear feels crowded - and likely wrong.

SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is rated Buy for 2026, with a projected 6.8% return amid expectations for lower returns and higher volatility. Consensus targets imply 9.08% upside, but Bayesian adjustments for valuation, equity preference, and macro factors temper expectations to 6.83%.

US equity indices face near-term softness from renewed AI concerns tied to Broadcom guidance, but the broader outlook remains constructive. Key technical support is holding, favoring buy-the-dip strategies with upside targets intact.

US equities are set to reach fresh record highs next year, supported by stronger corporate earnings, broadening artificial intelligence adoption, and resilient economic growth, according to Goldman Sachs strategists. The outlook adds to a growing consensus among major financial institutions that the ongoing market rally still has room to run.

Disney embraces AI in licensing deal, Broadcom beats earnings expectations, Trump administration targets financial industry watchdog, more news to start your day.

The S&P 500, a benchmark for the overall U.S. stock market, has been in bull market territory since October 2022. The S&P 500 has returned an average of 184% during past bull markets, but the index has only gained 92% during the current one.

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