ProShares UltraPro Short S&P 500

SPXU

Market cap $551M

The artificial intelligence sector is showing critical warning signs that suggest a significant correction may be approaching. Recent market analysis reveals that AI stocks, particularly the “Magnificent Seven,” have been making lower highs since December 2024, diverging from broader market performance – a pattern that historically precedes major corrections.

SPXU offers -3X daily leverage on the S&P 500 for trading or hedging. Leveraged ETF drift can erode returns—especially in volatile, non-trending markets and with high inverse leverage factors. SPXU's historical drift has fluctuated, with recent positive drift, but long-term data shows significant decay during market whipsaws.

SPXU is designed for -3x daily inverse S&P 500 exposure, making it suitable only for short-term speculation or hedging, not long-term investment. Holding SPXU over time leads to value erosion, due to daily derivative time decay and compounding losses, especially in volatile markets. The ETF is highly liquid with tight spreads and low costs, performing as intended for its specific purpose of daily leveraged trading.

The U.S. equity index nosedived on Trump's sweeping series of tariffs, resulting in a spike for inverse or inverse-leveraged ETFs.

Without the help of a crystal ball, holding the ProShares UltraPro Short S&P500 ETF is probably a bad idea for nearly every investor. I believe in the sustained deterioration in market conditions caused by the uncertainty surrounding the current trade war, but this is not enough to justify owning SPXU. For those being careful or skeptical about the prospects of the S&P 500 ahead of a potential recession, I present a few alternatives to being bearish the US equities markets.

President Trump's tariffs unleash a fresh wave of chaos in global markets. Investors should keep an eye on these ETFs.

Leveraged ETFs like ProShares UltraPro Short S&P500 ETF have a non-linear behavior. A watchlist with 22 leveraged ETFs. The SPXU ETF is a cost-effective hedging tool in bull markets, but may suffer steep decay during volatile periods.

Following the 2024 U.S. election, there has been a great deal of speculation about how a second Trump administration will set policies that have an impact on the economy. Some have taken a strongly optimistic view of what's to come—a recent Goldman Sachs report suggested that the likelihood of a recession has diminished along with inflation levels and that anticipated changes to tariffs, immigration, and other policies are not likely to dampen economic growth.

The ProShares UltraPro Short S&P500 ETF aims to provide triple the inverse daily performance of the S&P 500, ideal for bearish market outlooks. The ETF is highly leveraged and suitable for short-term trading, not long-term holding due to an elevated expense ratio and numerous medium-and-long-term tailwinds for US stocks. Arguments for a long SPXU position include election uncertainty, high concentration and elevated valuation of the S&P 500, as well as passive investor inflows.

SPXU is a 3x leveraged inverse bet on the S&P 500 with a 10.74% TTM dividend yield from US Treasuries. While the dividend is attractive, it is more of a quirk than something we can effectively capture. The fund's leveraged nature comes with high risk warnings and negative compounding that amplifies losses over time.