iShares MSCI Japan Small-Cap ETF

SCJ

Market cap $155M

Solid growth and ongoing shareholder-friendly reforms are driving Japanese equity gains, keeping us overweight. We see the AI theme playing out globally.

Berkshire's higher stakes in Mitsubishi and Mitsui spark a rally in Japan's trading houses. ETFs like FJP, EWJV, DFJ, SCJ, FLJH are likely to benefit.

Among APAC equity markets, Australia has a higher beta to oil prices while India, Indonesia and Thailand have lower betas. Domestic political uncertainties have been one main reason for the decoupling trend seen in Indonesia and Thailand.

Japan's bond market is causing ripples across global financial markets, with rising long-dated government bond yields threatening to trigger capital flight from the United States and unwind the popular carry trade strategy. The carry trade is a strategy where investors borrow in low-yielding currencies like the yen to invest in higher-yielding assets abroad.

Japanese equities have underperformed globally since 2011. The MSCI Japan Small-Cap Index only outperformed the MSCI World Small Cap Index in four years since 2011. Japan's economy has faced significant pressure since 2019-2020, causing many investors to avoid Japanese stocks. Despite recent underperformance, factors exist that could renew investor interest in Japan's stock market.

As the global private equity industry took tentative steps toward recovery in 2024, Japan raced ahead. The value of private equity investment in Japan jumped nearly 41% over the prior-year total in 2024, far outpacing the 25% year-over-year gain in global private equity deal value, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data.

Today's data were a mixed bag, but the Bank of Japan will pay more attention to the sharp rise in Tokyo's inflation. Tokyo consumer prices rose more than expected to 2.6% YoY (vs 2.2% in July, 2.3% market consensus).

India small-caps only recently took the lead on the US, with a big jump higher over the last 18 months or so. Small-caps in other countries have been poor options for US investors relative to owning something like the S&P 500 ETF.

The “real” policy rate is massively negative, with the new policy rate of 0.25% far below Core CPI of 2.6%. When QT reaches about ¥3 trillion per month in 2026, it would represent a reduction of its JGB holdings of about 0.5% per month.

Japan has been struggling for some time to generate enough velocity in inflation to escape the gravitational pull of deflation. The story for the rest of 2024 and into 2025 is now centered on whether inflation will be sustained at the BOJ's 2% target.