Schwab Intermediately-Term US Treasury ETF

SCHR

Market cap $13.3B

Unusual trading activity puts two ETFs in focus as volume surges well above normal levels despite a broad market selloff.

The Schwab Intermediate-Term U.S. Treasury ETF faces heightened duration risk amid inflationary pressures from ongoing geopolitical conflict. SCHR's nearly 5-year duration makes it highly sensitive to shifts in US yield curve, with recent 0.4% YTM uptick causing a 2% price drawdown. Fed rate cuts are off the table while oil logistics remain disrupted, sustaining a 'higher for longer' rates environment and pressuring intermediate Treasuries.

The Schwab Intermediate-Term U.S. Treasury ETF (SCHR) offers exposure to intermediate-term Treasuries with a low 0.03% expense ratio and $12.34 billion AUM. SCHR's historical performance reflects shifts in Fed policy, with sharp gains during rate cuts and declines during aggressive rate hikes, notably in 2022. Recently, SCHR benefited from a shift in risk from inflation to labor market concerns, outpacing short and long-term maturity peers.

SCHR offers low-cost, passive exposure to intermediate-term U.S. Treasuries, tracking the Bloomberg 3–10 Year Index with minimal tracking error and high liquidity. Current macro indicators show a 92% probability of rate cuts, favoring the fund's 3–10 year maturity focus for price appreciation and yield capture. Yield curve analysis reveals the 'belly' remains relatively expensive, but gradual rate cuts and controlled inflation support continued relative outperformance for SCHR.

SCHR offers a compelling low expense ratio versus peers, making it a preferred choice for intermediate Treasury exposure over alternatives like IEI. Current inflation expectations outside the UMich survey are moderate, with declining oil prices helping keep inflation in check and limiting the risks for duration bets. Despite positives, I maintain a Hold rating on SCHR as the economy doesn't urgently require rate cuts and trade negotiations still create uncertainty.

SCHR offers a 4.48% SEC 30-day yield, which is close to the 10-year Treasury rate of 4.64%. It targets 3- to 10-year Treasury bonds, providing moderate interest rate risk and volatility, with a weighted average maturity of 5.6 years. Current economic indicators suggest a resilient labor market, reducing the likelihood of imminent interest rate cuts.

Schwab Intermediate-Term U.S. Treasury ETF has a 5-year duration, making it sensitive to rate changes, where the yield curve is on the rise. Inflationary pressures from Trump's policies, including tariffs and policy around illegal immigrants, could hinder disinflation and affect rate-cut expectations. Wage growth and inflation expectations as of the last measurement were already too high to be able to support serious disinflation without oil price declines.

24/7 Wall St. Key Takeaways: SCHD is best suited for long-term investors seeking both income and growth potential, while SCHR appeals to conservative investors focused on safety and capital preservation.

WESTLAKE, Texas--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Schwab Asset Management®, the asset management arm of The Charles Schwab Corporation, today announced forward share splits on 20 Schwab ETFs. Forward ETF share splits increase the number of shares outstanding and decrease the Net Asset Value (NAV) per share. The share splits will not change the total value of a shareholder's investment. The ETF share splits will apply to shareholders of record as of the close of US markets on October 9, 2024, payable after the.

The ECB cut rates by 25bp as widely anticipated, but a slightly hawkish tilt bear flattened the EUR curve, which in our view remains priced aggressively. In the US, as the markets head towards the Fed's first rate cut, the probability of a larger cut rose slightly on Thursday.