RPAR Risk Parity ETF

RPAR

Market cap $552M

RPAR Risk Parity ETF uses a volatility-based allocation to balance risk across Treasuries, TIPS, equities, and commodities. Simulations of risk-parity models on very long periods show an attractive profit/risk balance. Nonetheless, RPAR has underperformed a 60/40 benchmark and several multi-asset ETFs since its inception in December 2019.

My track record on multi-asset class investing has been poor, but I believe RPAR could deliver high-single digit to low-double digit returns annually over the next decade. RPAR's strategy involves leveraging a diversified portfolio of low-correlation assets, balancing risk by investing more in low-volatility assets. Despite recent poor performance due to a massive bond bear market, historical data and CAPM suggest future returns could improve to around 8% annually or more.

RPAR ETF has delivered almost 7% returns since November, recouping some of its 2022 losses. Revisiting the RPAR ETF's design, I believe its heavy allocation to bonds will cause it to underperform in the coming years. Instead of the RPAR, investors may be able to achieve superior diversified returns using low-cost ETFs.

Despite a challenging history with a 35% drawdown by late 2023, RPAR's all-weather strategy offers long-term promise. With improved bond yields and a potential monetary policy pivot, RPAR is poised for 6-7% annual gains moving forward. Historical data supports the benefit of RPAR's deep diversification, suggesting recovery and above-average returns ahead.

RPAR Risk Parity ETF's heavy fixed-income allocations have acted as a headwind, causing the fund to underperform. Looking forward, I worry the fund's allocation strategy may be based on historical data since 2000 that is biased towards bonds. However, I believe there are structural reasons inflation and interest rates will be secularly higher in the coming years, which would prove to be detrimental to RPAR.