ProShares Short Real Estate

REK

Market cap $10.6M

Sticky inflation and rising rate fears are putting pressure on markets. These ETFs may help investors navigate a higher-rate environment.

There was a sharp rise in Treasury yields last week, with the 30-year Treasury yield climbing above 5.1% on May 15, 2026. Investor concerns intensified after a series of economic reports suggested inflationary pressures were picking up again, partly due to elevated oil prices linked to Middle East tensions.

After 1,078 trading days, U.S. REITs (FTSE NAREIT All Equity Total Return Index) reached new all-time highs on Friday, April 17. Commercial real estate (CRE) has already undergone a significant valuation reset, while many other public and private markets have yet to experience a comparable repricing. Signals from the U.S. listed REIT market indicate that real estate is transitioning from recovery to expansion, as valuations move above prior cycle highs.

Year-to-date returns across the REIT market varied remarkably, with large gains from non-U.S. REITs and U.S. healthcare REITs, while U.S. residential and data center sectors were notable laggards. In the last three years, there have been two major forces impacting the performance of equity markets and real estate. Today's public REIT market looks a lot different than what most investors expect. Sectors previously considered niche have grown to be essential in today's economy and society.

Real estate earnings season kicks into gear this week, and over the next month, we'll hear results from 175 equity REITs, 40 mortgage REITs, and dozens of housing industry companies. One step forward, one back: Matching the stubborn performance pattern seen last year, REITs rallied ahead of the Fed's September rate cut but stumbled into the start of earnings season. In this report, we focus specifically on property-level fundamentals, previewing and forecasting REIT earnings performance based on an analysis of recent indicators across various sources.

For nearly five decades, US REITs have delivered stronger returns than broad US stocks in the 12 months following Federal Reserve easing cycles. Rate cuts may increase the attractiveness of REIT dividends, potentially making them a compelling option for investors seeking yield potential and portfolio diversification. Data centers, telecom infrastructure, and health care REITs have historically benefited the most from lower rates due to long-duration leases and capital-intensive models.

REITs performed very well in August (+5.48%), almost pulling the REIT sector's year-to-date total return back into the black (-1.11%). Small cap (+7.52%) and mid cap REITs (+7.13%) averaged strong gains in August while large caps (+3.16%) and micro caps (+0.87%) averaged more modest returns. 83.87% of REIT securities had a positive total return in August.

U.S. equity markets pushed higher this past week - while short-term benchmark interest rates plunged to three-year lows - after employment data provided decisive evidence of cooling labor markets. Viewed by markets as a "Goldilocks" set of reports, the reports showed slowing - but still positive - job growth in August alongside consistent evidence of cooling wage pressures and emerging slack. A notable milestone after several years of ultra-tight labor markets, the number of job seekers surpassed the number of available job openings for the first time since April 2021.

A surprising solid REIT earnings season wrapped up this week. Of the 100 equity REITs that provide full-year FFO guidance, 62% raised their outlook - above the historical 55% average. Disinflation was a surprisingly common thread across second-quarter results, with the majority of the upside revisions being driven by improved expense expectations - the highest quantity of expense reductions ever. Healthcare REITs were notable upside standouts as senior housing fundamentals remained stellar, while skilled nursing REITs received some good news on the policy front via healthy CMS Medicare rate increases.

Return to office mandates are providing a boost to REITs. Some deal activity has also been a tailwind. Tariffs and slowing residential rent growth remain headwinds.