ProShares Short Real Estate

REK

Market cap $11.4M

Year-to-date returns across the REIT market varied remarkably, with large gains from non-U.S. REITs and U.S. healthcare REITs, while U.S. residential and data center sectors were notable laggards. In the last three years, there have been two major forces impacting the performance of equity markets and real estate. Today's public REIT market looks a lot different than what most investors expect. Sectors previously considered niche have grown to be essential in today's economy and society.

Real estate earnings season kicks into gear this week, and over the next month, we'll hear results from 175 equity REITs, 40 mortgage REITs, and dozens of housing industry companies. One step forward, one back: Matching the stubborn performance pattern seen last year, REITs rallied ahead of the Fed's September rate cut but stumbled into the start of earnings season. In this report, we focus specifically on property-level fundamentals, previewing and forecasting REIT earnings performance based on an analysis of recent indicators across various sources.

For nearly five decades, US REITs have delivered stronger returns than broad US stocks in the 12 months following Federal Reserve easing cycles. Rate cuts may increase the attractiveness of REIT dividends, potentially making them a compelling option for investors seeking yield potential and portfolio diversification. Data centers, telecom infrastructure, and health care REITs have historically benefited the most from lower rates due to long-duration leases and capital-intensive models.

REITs performed very well in August (+5.48%), almost pulling the REIT sector's year-to-date total return back into the black (-1.11%). Small cap (+7.52%) and mid cap REITs (+7.13%) averaged strong gains in August while large caps (+3.16%) and micro caps (+0.87%) averaged more modest returns. 83.87% of REIT securities had a positive total return in August.

U.S. equity markets pushed higher this past week - while short-term benchmark interest rates plunged to three-year lows - after employment data provided decisive evidence of cooling labor markets. Viewed by markets as a "Goldilocks" set of reports, the reports showed slowing - but still positive - job growth in August alongside consistent evidence of cooling wage pressures and emerging slack. A notable milestone after several years of ultra-tight labor markets, the number of job seekers surpassed the number of available job openings for the first time since April 2021.

A surprising solid REIT earnings season wrapped up this week. Of the 100 equity REITs that provide full-year FFO guidance, 62% raised their outlook - above the historical 55% average. Disinflation was a surprisingly common thread across second-quarter results, with the majority of the upside revisions being driven by improved expense expectations - the highest quantity of expense reductions ever. Healthcare REITs were notable upside standouts as senior housing fundamentals remained stellar, while skilled nursing REITs received some good news on the policy front via healthy CMS Medicare rate increases.

Return to office mandates are providing a boost to REITs. Some deal activity has also been a tailwind. Tariffs and slowing residential rent growth remain headwinds.

Most US REITs make nearly 90% of their revenue domestically, compared to 72% for typical U.S. stocks. Healthcare, residential, and needs-based retail are less affected by trade disruptions, while office, lodging, and timber are more vulnerable. They're trading at a -2.79x earnings multiple discount to US stocks - one of the widest gaps in decades.

U.S. equity markets climbed to fresh record-highs this week after a critical slate of inflation data showed that tariff-driven inflation remains muted, while rumors of a potential Powell termination swirled. Supported by data this week showing that core inflation cooled to its slowest pace in over three years, the White House reignited the heat on the head of the Fed. Rebounding from modest declines last week, the S&P 500 advanced 0.6%, notching record highs in three of the past four weeks following a five-month drought.

U.S. equity markets closed the Independence Day week at record highs after Congress approved the GOP's sweeping tax cut and spending megabill, while employment data indicated "Goldilocks" labor market trends. The Big Beautiful Bill extends and enhances key elements of the 2017 tax cuts and boosts State and Local Tax ("SALT") deductions, while overhauling eligibility requirements for government benefits programs. The real estate and homebuilding industry scored some key "wins" in the legislation, which made permanent the 20% QBI deduction for REIT dividend income and relaxed some REIT tax rules.