Invesco Golden Dragon China ETF

PGJ

Market cap $151M

The Invesco Golden Dragon China ETF stands out right with its over 20% returns YTD, ahead of the Shanghai Composite and the S&P 500. Despite this, it's hard to fully get behind the PGJ story right now, as tariff flip-flops between the U.S. and China create uncertainty. Additionally, the Chinese economy continues to struggle, which can cast a shadow on the impressive growth in the technology sector.

Despite mounting macro headwinds at the start of the year, Chinese equities have continued to deliver positive performance. While near-term flows can provide further upside, the durability for the equity rally will hinge on policy choices ahead.

As the U.S. wrestles China for AI dominance, investors are playing both sides.

Count stocks from China among this year's international standouts. Widely observed gauges of equities in the world's second-largest economy are outpacing both the S&P 500 and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index by comfortable margins since the start of this year.

A looming trade deal between the U.S. and China is bullish for the Chinese stock market. When Invesco Golden Dragon China ETF is compared to iShares China Large-Cap ETF, FXI appears to be a better choice. Seeking Alpha ETF Grades highlight the differences between PGJ and FXI.

Among APAC equity markets, Australia has a higher beta to oil prices while India, Indonesia and Thailand have lower betas. Domestic political uncertainties have been one main reason for the decoupling trend seen in Indonesia and Thailand.

April saw a sharp stock market drop due to Trump's aggressive new tariffs, especially on China.

I am bearish on China's long-term prospects, despite a recent 4.5% rise in the index since June 2024, due to government stimulus measures. The People's Bank of China's September stimulus included lower bank reserve requirements, mortgage rate reductions, and subsidized business loans, temporarily boosting markets. Recent market gains from the stimulus have retracted, highlighting persistent underlying issues in China's economy despite short-term boosts.

Has the AI trade moved to China? Why Chinese chipmakers may soon change the semiconductor space.

One of the top themes year-to-date has been China-focused technology ETFs. China technology stocks have surged on AI enthusiasm related to China startup DeepSeek's AI model launch.