Blue Owl Capital

OWL

Market cap $9.97B

Blue Owl Capital Corporation offers a compelling deep value opportunity with a forward 12%+ dividend yield amid moderating AI excitement. OBDC is significantly undervalued, with fair value estimates 44% to 77% above the current share price, even under conservative dividend growth assumptions. While OBDC's high payout ratio may limit future dividend growth, the current yield remains highly attractive for income-focused investors.

Blue Owl stock price has been in a freefall and is lagging other top companies in the industry like Apollo, Blackstone, and Ares. OWL has plunged from the year-to-date high of $25.52 to $14.45, while its market cap has dropped from $40 billion to $22 billion today.

NEW YORK , Nov. 26, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Blue Owl Capital Inc. (NYSE: OWL) ("Blue Owl") today announced that Doug Ostrover, co-CEO, will present at the Goldman Sachs 2025 US Financial Services Conference on Wednesday, December 10, 2025 at 1:40 pm ET. A webcast of the presentation will be broadcast live on the Shareholders section of Blue Owl's website at www.ir.blueowl.com.

I initiate my coverage on Blue Owl Capital Inc. (OWL), with a strong buy rating, supported by record fundraising of $57B TTM, and significant exposure to AI digital infrastructure growth. Recently, Blue Owl led landmark hyperscaler financings, including $30B Meta Hyperion, $20B Oracle Stargate (NM), and $15B Oracle Abilene, within a >$100B pipeline. At ~15x forward earnings and a 6.4% dividend yield (cheaper than Blackstone, KKR, Ares, and Brookfield), I believe sentiment, not fundamentals, explains the 12-month underperformance.

Blue Owl Capital Corp. is downgraded from buy to hold due to rising macro uncertainty and disappointing Q3 earnings. OBDC trades at a sizable discount to NAV and offers an attractive yield but faces tight dividend coverage and potential for a dividend cut. Q3 results showed lower investment income, a modest rise in non-accruals, and continued NAV decline, despite positives from merger synergies and increased investment activity.

Blue Owl Capital Inc. is a strong buy after recent price declines, offering attractive value amid negative headlines affecting private capital companies. OWL's robust growth is driven by record capital raising, expanding assets under management, and a resilient business model with limited credit risk exposure. Recent data center investments with Meta and Oracle, plus strategic acquisitions, position OWL for significant long-term fee and earnings growth.

Blue Owl Capital (OBDC) terminated its merger with Blue Owl Capital Corporation II, leading to a 20% discount to net asset value. OBDC's non-accruals rose modestly but remain manageable, with portfolio quality supported by a focus on senior secured loans. A $200 million share buyback at a deep discount and a well-covered dividend present a compelling high-yield income opportunity.

Blue Owl Capital is considering reviving a plan to merge two of its private credit funds if the share price of the larger fund improves, as the alternative asset manager evaluates its options after facing investor backlash against the move last week, according to two people familiar with the matter.

Blue Owl Capital has been heavily sold off due to market overreactions to private credit concerns, despite strong fundamentals. OWL reported a solid Q3'25 with minimal non-accruals and no exposure to troubled credits like Tricolor or First Brands. Management emphasized that recent negative headlines do not reflect the true strength of OWL's credit portfolio or the broader private credit market.

Blue Owl Capital Corporation faces persistent headwinds from private credit default concerns, earnings normalization, and potential dividend cuts, but remains fundamentally resilient. The merger with OBDC II has been terminated, helping to allay weak sentiments that have affected the stock's momentum in recent weeks. Despite a modest uptick in non-accruals and a likely dividend reduction, OBDC's 12.4% forward yield and 21% discount to NAV offer compelling value for income investors.