WisdomTree Trust WisdomTree Japan Opportunities Fund

OPPJ

Market cap $107M

The Nikkei 225 falls to 49,303 as rate-hike odds for December 19 approach 80%. Electronics, pharma, and industrials lead declines as liquidity expectations tighten.

Nikkei closes at 51,063, extending gains for a second session. Manufacturing confidence hits a four-year high as exports strengthen.

By Jeremy Schwartz, CFA, Global Chief Investment Officer; Jeremy Siegel, WisdomTree Senior Economist; Samuel Rines, Macro Strategist, Model Portfolios; Jeff Weniger, CFA, Head of Equity Strategy Key Takeaways China's control over rare earths presents a strategic vulnerability for the U.S.

At the recent Midyear Market Outlook Symposium, TMX VettaFi Investment Strategist Cinthia Murphy led a timely discussion on the shifting global investment landscape. With uncertainty building in U.S. markets and international equities outperforming in 2025, investors are increasingly asking whether this trend has staying power.

As the global private equity industry took tentative steps toward recovery in 2024, Japan raced ahead. The value of private equity investment in Japan jumped nearly 41% over the prior-year total in 2024, far outpacing the 25% year-over-year gain in global private equity deal value, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data.

Today's data were a mixed bag, but the Bank of Japan will pay more attention to the sharp rise in Tokyo's inflation. Tokyo consumer prices rose more than expected to 2.6% YoY (vs 2.2% in July, 2.3% market consensus).

The “real” policy rate is massively negative, with the new policy rate of 0.25% far below Core CPI of 2.6%. When QT reaches about ¥3 trillion per month in 2026, it would represent a reduction of its JGB holdings of about 0.5% per month.

Japan has been struggling for some time to generate enough velocity in inflation to escape the gravitational pull of deflation. The story for the rest of 2024 and into 2025 is now centered on whether inflation will be sustained at the BOJ's 2% target.

In March, the Bank of Japan abolished its 8-year-old negative interest rate policy, hiking rates for the first time in 17 years by raising its benchmark rate to 0-0.1%. To combat inflation while also avoiding an excessive surge in interest payments, the BOJ is considering passive quantitative tightening.

We'd rather downplay the weaker-than-expected manufacturing data and focus on a solid recovery in retail sales and a reacceleration in inflation, which will be welcomed by the Bank of Japan. Inflation has been quite choppy due to various government programmes and utility prices.