Newmont

NEM

Market cap $141B

Newmont Corporation (NEM) reached $127.47 at the closing of the latest trading day, reflecting a +2.1% change compared to its last close.

Newmont (NYSE:NEM) concluded 2025 with a robust fourth quarter, announcing adjusted earnings of $2.52 per share on revenue of approximately $6.8 billion, with heightened realized gold prices and effective cost management leading to a boost in profitability. The company generated around $2.8 billion in free cash flow during Q4 alone, finishing a year characterized by portfolio transformation, asset divestitures, and a renewed emphasis on high-quality Tier 1 operations.

The Overseas Equity ETF posted a return of 6.45% in fourth quarter 2025. Samsung's results reflect continued strong demand and shortage-induced pricing strength for DRAM chips and persistent demand from hyperscalers driven by AI infrastructure buildouts. Strong gold and copper prices drove cash flows during the quarter, and operating leverage was enhanced by resumed gold production in Mali.

Newmont is a leading gold miner with a market capitalization of $135 billion. The company performed extremely well in 2025.

Newmont and Agnico Eagle strengthen their positions with rising cash flows and project expansions as gold prices stay elevated.

The uncertain macroeconomic/geopolitical environment has contributed to Gold's recent rally as an "ultimate safe haven investment" thesis while highlighting NEM's beneficiary status. NEM's FY2026 guidance signals lower gold production, higher AISC, and increased capex, pressuring near-term performance metrics and FCF before delivering production growth from FY2027 onwards. With management prioritizing buybacks over meaningful dividend growth at current elevated share prices, it is unsurprising that the stock offers an underwhelming forward dividend yield of 0.80%.

Newmont Corporation is rated Buy, supported by robust fundamentals, decisive new CEO actions, and a favorable gold macro backdrop. NEM reported record free cash flow, reduced debt by $3.4B, and maintains significant liquidity with $7.65B in cash, enabling organic growth focus. Production is expected to trough in 2026 at 5.3M oz before rebounding to ~6M oz in 2027+, with AISC at $1,680/oz and $3.35B in CAPEX.

Newmont is one of the few names in the gold sector in which I have the highest conviction. While the company is undergoing a strategic transformation that involves a temporary dip in gold production volumes, I still expect revenue to grow by 18% in 2026. My gold price forecast targets $6,000 per ounce by mid-2026, which will significantly bolster the company's financial performance.

Rising gold and silver prices in 2025–2026 have driven a step-change in mining company profits and cash flow. Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF returned 184.02% in 2025, far outpacing spot metals prices. Miners' net profit margins now rival tech giants, with cash flows accelerating—Newmont Mining's free cash flow rose 150% year-over-year.

Gold has rallied 70% over the past year. Newmont has cashed in on higher prices, enabling it to strengthen its balance sheet and return money to shareholders.