Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending

NCDL

Market cap $708M

Thirteen of 35 October Dividend Power Dogs are recommended for their "safer" dividends, with free cash-flow yields exceeding dividend yields, making them ideal buys. The Dividend Power strategy focuses on high earnings yield and high dividend yield, creating a resilient portfolio for both downturns and bull markets. Analysts project significant gains for the top ten DiviPower stocks by October 2026, with potential net gains ranging from 36% to 190.33%.

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending stands out as an overlooked BDC with strong fundamentals and attractive valuation, making it a compelling buy. NCDL's credit quality remains solid, with low non-accruals and a stable risk rating, outperforming many peers amid economic uncertainty. The balance sheet is robust, featuring investment-grade status, ample liquidity, and no debt maturities until 2029, providing flexibility for future growth.

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NYSE: NCDL) (“NCDL” or “the Company”), today announced it will report its financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025, on Tuesday, November 4, 2025, before the market opens. The Company will host an earnings conference call and public webcast at 1:00 PM Eastern Time the same day to discuss its financial results. All interested parties may participate in the conference call by dialing (866)-605-1826 approximat.

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. trades at a z-score of around "-3", far below its 8.63% historical average. NCDL offers an expected return on NAV of above 10%, compared to its bond yield of 5.7%, making the stock attractive. NCDL boasts strong fundamentals: low non-accrual loans, high asset security, and a disciplined investment strategy.

Blackstone Secured Lending and Morgan Stanley Direct Lending are high-quality BDCs facing potential dividend cuts due to falling coverage ratios. BXSL's fundamentals remain strong, but tight dividend coverage, high floating-rate exposure, and significant upcoming debt maturities raise concerns about a near-term cut. MSDL, despite robust liquidity and investment-grade ratings, has seen declining earnings, rising non-performing loans, and high floating-rate exposure, signaling possible dividend reduction.

The Dividend Power strategy highlights 35 high-yield stocks, with 12 'safer' picks offering free cash flow yields above dividend yields and fair valuations. Top five 'safer' Dividend Power stocks for September are Carlyle Secured Lending (CGBD), Stellus Capital (SCM), Blue Owl Capital (OBDC), SLR Investment (SLRC), and Seven Hills Realty (SEVN). Analyst projections suggest the top ten Dividend Power stocks could deliver average net gains of 43.3% by September 2026, though risk and volatility vary.

BDCs have two issues: 1) almost no margin of safety for dividend coverage, and 2) depressed earnings outlook. For many players it is just a matter of several quarters before they become forced to cut dividends. Yet, there are many arguments, which negate such a view. Unfortunately, many of them ar myths.

The investment case for closed-end funds (CEFs) is weak now due to tight discounts, high leverage costs, and expensive underlying assets. Most CEFs do not deliver sustainable alpha, and lower-fee actively managed ETFs now offer similar exposures with better economics. We have reduced our CEF allocation, favoring alternatives like BDCs, select ETFs, preferreds, and bonds for better value and risk/reward.

BofA Securities is the investment banking and capital markets division of Bank of America, one of the largest financial institutions in the United States.

NCDL delivered outperformance in Q2 in absolute terms and particularly in valuation-adjusted basis terms. The company trades at a 10% discount and 11.1% yield. The share repurchase program and favorable fee structure demonstrate commitment to shareholder value.