Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund

MSDL

Market cap $1.48B

BDCs have recently suffered a significant downside volatility. There is indeed a justified reason for system-wide valuation adjustments. Yet, for some BDCs the market has gone too far, while for some the necessary level correction has not yet happened.

The chances for a notable correction are certainly not low. Going into richly priced and growth-focused names might not be the smartest idea. Yet, sitting on sidelines might come with some serious opportunity costs.

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund (NYSE: MSDL) ("MSDL”), a business development company externally managed by MS Capital Partners Adviser Inc., today announced it will release its financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, on Thursday, November 6, 2025, after the market closes. MSDL will host a conference call at 10:00 am ET on Friday, November 7, 2025, to review its financial results and conduct a question-and-answer session. Conference Call Informa.

The BDC sector has been hammered. The discounts have become deep almost across the board. The question is whether to enter now, or is the risk still too high that it will end up being a 'catching a falling knife' moment?

MSDL has seen its stock price decline ~20% YTD, creating a significant valuation gap versus peer BXSL. Morgan Stanley Direct Lending now trades at ~0.8x NAV compared to BXSL's 1.0x, making the current discount and income potential attractive for investors. Despite concerns over dividend coverage and declining net investment income, I upgrade MSDL to a 'strong buy' due to upside from multiple appreciation.

Since May 2025, I have been bearish on the Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund. My concern was that MSDL's price-to-NAV aligned valuation did not factor in the forthcoming pressures from base rate cuts. While my thesis has turned out to be correct, I am surprised about the magnitude of the realized correction.

Blackstone Secured Lending and Morgan Stanley Direct Lending are high-quality BDCs facing potential dividend cuts due to falling coverage ratios. BXSL's fundamentals remain strong, but tight dividend coverage, high floating-rate exposure, and significant upcoming debt maturities raise concerns about a near-term cut. MSDL, despite robust liquidity and investment-grade ratings, has seen declining earnings, rising non-performing loans, and high floating-rate exposure, signaling possible dividend reduction.

The current economic environment is marked by persistent inflation and a weakening labor market, raising uncertainty and risk for investors. Despite these risks, large-cap equities, tech stocks, and high-yield credit continue to climb, defying expectations of repricing. Income-focused assets like real estate, financials, dividend growth (SCHD), and quality CEFs (UTG, PDI) now offer lower yields as well.

14 BDCs have base dividend coverage levels between 100% and 105%. 16 BDCs have them already below 100%. Given the unfavorable future earnings outlook, a system-wide BDC dividend cutting process is very likely to start quite soon.

Interest rates are one of the most important drivers of asset valuations, directly impacting discount rates and valuations. So, as the Fed lowers rates, yield compression occurs, making it harder to find safe, high-yield investments - now even above 8%. In the current environment, reliable yields of 6% to 8% are still achievable (at scale), while yields above 10% are mostly speculative.