iShares MBS ETF

MBB

Market cap $38.9B

A stunning one-day surge of 40% in Fannie Mae (OTC:FNMA) and a 47% rise in Freddie Mac (OTC:FMCC) stocks has shocked the market, but the real story could be in the overall, untapped opportunity in mortgage- and housing-related exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

With President Trump back in the White House steering us through tariff talks and economic shifts in March 2026, the reality is that the fixed income world has plenty to consider.

I remain bullish about the iShares MBS ETF's prospects, foreseeing mid-to-high single-digit returns for 2026. MBB might benefit from favorable duration dynamics, high coupon rates, and anticipated institutional buying support. Risks include a potential mortgage spread re-rating and a concave risk-return distribution.

When bond investors chase yield, they often overlook the engine that drives total returns: price appreciation from interest rate movements.

High mortgage rates remain the primary obstacle to the American Dream; with the current 30-year fixed rate at 6.20%, the income required to buy a house has nearly doubled since 2019. Despite recent spikes, mortgage rates are expected to return to their long-term downward trend as the economy normalizes and the Fed continues to adjust short-term rates. Safety of Agency MBS: Both NLY and MBB invest in securities where the principal is guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, offering minimal credit risk even if borrowers default.

The iShares MBS ETF offers agency mortgage-backed securities exposure with a $39B AUM, no credit risk, and a 5.4-year duration. MBB's low volatility and 4.15% SEC yield make it a stable, ‘boring' instrument, but it becomes compelling when rates are poised to fall. With a potential new Fed Chair in 2026 likely to cut rates aggressively, MBB is positioned for outsized returns in a declining rate environment.

A compelling observation was made by Jeffrey Sherman, deputy chief investment officer at DoubleLine, on stage at the Astoria Advisors Macro Summit. He had just stated, “As a bond investor, I'm here to tell you that we're not special, but that we tend to be more risk-averse.

Real estate earnings season kicks into gear this week, and over the next month, we'll hear results from 175 equity REITs, 40 mortgage REITs, and dozens of housing industry companies. One step forward, one back: Matching the stubborn performance pattern seen last year, REITs rallied ahead of the Fed's September rate cut but stumbled into the start of earnings season. In this report, we focus specifically on property-level fundamentals, previewing and forecasting REIT earnings performance based on an analysis of recent indicators across various sources.

On Wednesday, Texas-based Optas Capital disclosed the sale of 37,650 shares of the iShares MBS ETF for an estimated $3.5 million during the third quarter.

MBB offers higher duration exposure, attractive in a rate-cutting environment, but prepayment risks require extra yield compensation versus Treasuries. Crudely, around two-thirds of MBB's holdings are unlikely to be refinanced with a likely rate cutting path, so the current yield fairly compensates for mitigated prepayment risk, but not more. While the call premium between the Treasuries and mortgage rates has historically been lower, we think that is also well priced in the current, somewhat uncertain environment.