KFA Mount Lucas Managed Futures Index Strategy ETF

KMLM

Market cap $182M

The 'Undercovered' Dozen series highlights lesser-known ETFs featuring in-depth analyses and offering unique investment opportunities for investors. The Mount Lucas Managed Futures Index Strategy ETF, Columbia India Consumer ETF, SPDR EURO STOXX 50 ETF, and Global X MSCI Greece ETF are recommended buys due to their strategic advantages and market positions. Invesco Dorsey Wright Industrials Momentum ETF and CoinShares Bitcoin Miners ETF receive hold ratings due to sector-specific challenges and concerns about diversification and expense ratios.

Managed future ETFs are funds that attempt to produce positive expected returns and some diversification to equities and fixed income. KraneShares Mount Lucas Managed Futures Index Strategy ETF offers low correlations with the S&P 500 and long-term US government bonds, which is great for diversification. KMLM has performed poorly relative to a couple of its key peers since 2022, making it an underappreciated fund, in my view.

KMLM employs a trend-following, volatility-weighted futures strategy aiming for positive returns in all market conditions, but its performance has varied, notably struggling in 2024. The ETF leverages futures to provide over 100% exposure across commodities, currencies, and fixed income, managed by an algorithm rather than human expertise. Diversifying managed futures strategies across multiple funds, like CTA and DBMF, is crucial to mitigate strategy concentration risk and enhance portfolio performance.

ETFs expanded their market share in recent years by bringing mutual and hedge fund strategies to a wider variety of investors. Taking strategies previously locked behind high entry fees and significant management fees, ETFs work to broaden the investing playing field.

Economic outlooks for 2025 under a second Trump administration generally fall into two distinct camps. While one set of investors position for runaway inflation, the other side looks to invest for a deflationary crisis.

The US stock market has had its best 2-year period since 1998-1999, and many investors worry about an impending crash. The 60-40 failed in 2022's inflation spike bear market, suffering its worst return since 1937. 4 ETFs combine to create a far superior 7.4% yielding alternative to the 60-40 retirement portfolio, historically falling 71% less than the market during downturns.

ETFs mitigate risks associated with individual stocks, which can suffer permanent catastrophic returns or bankruptcy, even AAA-rated companies like Microsoft and Johnson & Johnson. My ZEUS Family Portfolio for 2025 will buy six ETFs, aiming for a 6.5% long-term annual withdrawal rate, including charity and living expenses. Dividend-focused ETFs like SCHD and DGRW don't meet my portfolio's return potential, but growth and hedging ETFs, like the Mount Lucas managed futures ETF, offer significant benefits.

KMLM is an 8% variable-yielding ETF (it pays out annual profits as dividends, which have averaged 8% since 1988). KMLM tracks the best-performing managed futures index of the last 40 years. The MLM index has averaged 32% gains in the six bear markets since 1990, compared to the S&P's 32% average decline.

This ETF Edition highlights 12 less covered exchange-traded fund ideas on Seeking Alpha from June 1st - July 15th. ETFs in our first edition include Saba Closed-End Funds, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond BuyWrite Strategy, Global X Russell 2000 Covered Call, Invesco S&P 500 GARP, and more. Managed futures are in focus with one ETF idea where the author writes they "offer potential for maximizing income, boosting returns, and reducing volatility in a portfolio".

KFA Mount Lucas Index Strategy ETF is an 8.2% yielding ETF that pays out 100% of profits yearly as cash dividends (historical yield since 1988). Diversification with non-correlated assets, like managed futures, can generate "free alpha" and improve portfolio returns while significantly reducing portfolio volatility. KMLM has doubled its industry returns since 1988, thanks to its focus on 100% rules-based trend following, the most effective investing strategy of the last 800 years.