Kayne Anderson BDC

KBDC

Market cap $970M

BDCs have recently suffered a significant downside volatility. There is indeed a justified reason for system-wide valuation adjustments. Yet, for some BDCs the market has gone too far, while for some the necessary level correction has not yet happened.

CHICAGO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Kayne Anderson BDC, Inc. (NYSE: KBDC) (“KBDC”), a business development company externally managed by its investment adviser, KA Credit Advisors, LLC, announced today that it will release its financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025 on Monday, November 10, 2025, after the close of financial markets. KBDC will host a conference call at 10:00 am ET on Tuesday, November 11, 2025, to review its financial results. All interested parties are invited to.

ARCC is a top-tier BDC with a proven track record of excellence. However, I am not buying it on its recent sharp dip. I explain why I prefer KBDC instead.

KBDC has been my Top 1 first-lien focused BDC for a long time. The past couple of months have been extra painful for KBDC. Currently, we can buy KBDC at a similar discount to the sector median.

The BDC sector has been hammered. The discounts have become deep almost across the board. The question is whether to enter now, or is the risk still too high that it will end up being a 'catching a falling knife' moment?

Blackstone Secured Lending and Morgan Stanley Direct Lending are high-quality BDCs facing potential dividend cuts due to falling coverage ratios. BXSL's fundamentals remain strong, but tight dividend coverage, high floating-rate exposure, and significant upcoming debt maturities raise concerns about a near-term cut. MSDL, despite robust liquidity and investment-grade ratings, has seen declining earnings, rising non-performing loans, and high floating-rate exposure, signaling possible dividend reduction.

Two beaten-down dividend stocks with strong fundamentals are trading at deep discounts. One offers a double-digit yield, while the other combines AI-driven growth with income. Wall Street may be selling, but I see high-conviction value and long-term upside.

The current economic environment is marked by persistent inflation and a weakening labor market, raising uncertainty and risk for investors. Despite these risks, large-cap equities, tech stocks, and high-yield credit continue to climb, defying expectations of repricing. Income-focused assets like real estate, financials, dividend growth (SCHD), and quality CEFs (UTG, PDI) now offer lower yields as well.

14 BDCs have base dividend coverage levels between 100% and 105%. 16 BDCs have them already below 100%. Given the unfavorable future earnings outlook, a system-wide BDC dividend cutting process is very likely to start quite soon.

Interest rates are one of the most important drivers of asset valuations, directly impacting discount rates and valuations. So, as the Fed lowers rates, yield compression occurs, making it harder to find safe, high-yield investments - now even above 8%. In the current environment, reliable yields of 6% to 8% are still achievable (at scale), while yields above 10% are mostly speculative.