iShares US Real Estate ETF

IYR

Market cap $4.03B

The REIT sector rebounded from a rough 2025 (-3.57%) by starting off 2026 in the black (+1.09%). Small-cap REITs (+3.27%) outperformed in January, followed by solid gains from mid-caps (+2.65%) and large caps (+2.35%). Microcaps, however, had a dismal start to the year with. 63.46% of REIT securities had a positive total return in January.

REITs, as measured by VNQ, have outperformed in 2026, emerging as a safe haven amid tech and market declines. REITs offer reliable, contractual cash flows and dividend yields (3.8%) far exceeding the S&P's 1.15%, with FFO yields at 7.24%. Current REIT valuations (13.8x FFO) are historically cheap relative to the S&P (29.3x earnings), creating a compelling cash flow yield spread.

The Federal Reserve's Chair Jerome Powell's term is expiring on May 15, 2026.

The REIT sector closed out 2025 with a tough December (-1.48%) and finishing the year with a -3.57% total return for 2025. Small caps (+0.51%) eked out a small gain in December, while mid caps (-1.77%), large caps (-2.55%) and micro caps (-3.88%) fell at the close of the year. 42.04% of REIT securities had a positive total return in December with only 38.36% in the black for the full year.

Everything says REITs should be soaring — but they aren't. A hidden headwind is quietly holding returns back. One overlooked niche is where I am pouring my REIT capital.

The REIT sector returned to positive territory in November (+1.02%) after back-to-back months in the red. Mid caps (+3.53%) led the REIT sector in November followed by small caps (+3.38%) and large caps (+0.32%); micro caps (-8.76%) badly underperformed. 68.15% of REIT securities had a positive total return in November.

Year-to-date returns across the REIT market varied remarkably, with large gains from non-U.S. REITs and U.S. healthcare REITs, while U.S. residential and data center sectors were notable laggards. In the last three years, there have been two major forces impacting the performance of equity markets and real estate. Today's public REIT market looks a lot different than what most investors expect. Sectors previously considered niche have grown to be essential in today's economy and society.

iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF is underperforming peers and the broader market, with a 3.4% decline over the last month and lagging the S&P 500 in 2025. IYR faces risks from rising Treasury yields, low credit spreads, and potential investor rotation back into bonds if yields rise further. REIT ETFs, including IYR, have enjoyed strong long-term returns but are now rolling over amid macroeconomic headwinds and sector underperformance.

The REIT sector has seen back-to-back tough months as it saw a modest average negative total return in September (-0.73%) and fell deeper into the red in October (-4.03%). Small cap REITs (-5.05%) had the worst performance in October. Micro caps (-2.81%), mid caps (-3.11%) and large caps (-4.45%) were also in negative territory albeit to a smaller degree. Only 21.66% of REIT securities had a positive total return in October.

Real estate earnings season kicks into gear this week, and over the next month, we'll hear results from 175 equity REITs, 40 mortgage REITs, and dozens of housing industry companies. One step forward, one back: Matching the stubborn performance pattern seen last year, REITs rallied ahead of the Fed's September rate cut but stumbled into the start of earnings season. In this report, we focus specifically on property-level fundamentals, previewing and forecasting REIT earnings performance based on an analysis of recent indicators across various sources.