iShares S&P India Nifty 50 Index Fund

INDY

Market cap $629M

Despite tariff worries and equity outflows, India's growth story makes its ETFs a compelling play.

iShares India 50 ETF is upgraded from hold to buy, reflecting improved macro conditions, strong earnings potential, and attractive risk-reward. Indian GDP growth, credit growth, and consumer confidence appear to be on the up and reflect well on this cyclical-heavy portfolio. INDY trades at 3.5x book, in line with its 10-year average, and offers much superior long-term earnings growth vs. the S&P 500, while its sensitivity to the latter is also minimal.

Emerging markets equity returns have been driven by extreme mega-cap concentration, with index breadth collapsing to historic lows and masking weakness across much of the opportunity set. This concentration has distorted relative results for active managers, particularly those constrained by diversification rules or broad benchmarks, as small-cap underperformance and index construction limit flexibility.

India ETFs, like INDY and FLIN, draw fresh attention as the country's stock market rallies on the RBI's latest rate cut.

Goldman Sachs turns bullish on India, forecasting a 14% Nifty 50 rise and renewed upside potential for Indian ETFs like INDY and EPI.

WisdomTree India Earnings Fund receives a strong buy rating for its diversified exposure and superior risk-adjusted returns versus iShares India 50 ETF. India's robust GDP growth, young demographics, and ongoing structural reforms support a compelling long-term investment case for the country. EPI offers broader sector diversification and focuses on profitable companies, while INDY is heavily concentrated in financials and top holdings.

India's strong 6.4% projected GDP growth and favorable demographics make it an attractive emerging market opportunity, despite higher volatility. INDY ETF offers focused exposure to India's top companies, especially financials, benefiting from banking reforms, digitalization, and consumer growth trends. The fund's high concentration in large caps and key industries provides growth potential, but also increases company-specific and liquidity risks.

Among APAC equity markets, Australia has a higher beta to oil prices while India, Indonesia and Thailand have lower betas. Domestic political uncertainties have been one main reason for the decoupling trend seen in Indonesia and Thailand.

A surprise Israeli strike on Iran sent oil prices soaring. This may prompt sharp reactions in country ETFs such as ENOR (upside) and INDY (downside).

Border tensions have flared in India. But contagion risks appear to be well-contained. Focus on an increasingly attractive setup for Indian mega-caps.