Pacer Industrial Real Estate ETF

INDS

Market cap $127M

Three years of persistent rate-driven pressure on the residential and commercial real estate market appears to finally be abating - and not a moment too soon. REITs were hit by a "triple whammy" of rate-related headwinds: higher borrowing costs directly squeezed profitability, eroded the relative appeal of REIT dividends, and made it near-impossible to grow accretively. Since the Fed's initial rate hike in March 2022, REITs have lagged the S&P 500 by a whopping 55 percentage points, nearly 3x the magnitude of underperformance seen in the GFC.

U.S. equity markets notched another series of record highs this week, surging into the weekend after surprisingly dovish commentary from Federal Reserve Chair Powell, who hinted at imminent rate cuts. Powell used his final Jackson Hole speech as Fed Chair to deliver a clear policy pivot, an unexpected reversal after months of insistence that tariff-related inflation warranted a hawkish framework. Markets were equally relieved by the policy-focused nature of Powell's speech amid speculation that the address may be used instead as a potential defiant sermon on central bank independence.

U.S. equity markets fell sharply this week, while benchmark interest rates retreated to three-month lows, after revised employment data showed that job growth was far weaker than initially reported. The BLS payrolls report showed softer-than-expected hiring in July and the steepest two-month downward revisions to jobs growth since 2020, raising concern that the Fed may be "behind the curve." The downward revisions came days after Fed Chair Powell used it as the primary evidence for "solid" labor markets, which justified the FOMC's decision to keep rates in "restrictive" territory.

Despite recent price declines, REITs' future value has increased due to higher rental rates, increased property values, and reduced competing supply. Higher market demanded returns have steepened the slope, causing REIT prices to drop despite improved fundamentals and future value. The price drop is driven by higher expected returns, not impaired future value, making current REIT valuations a buying opportunity.

Real estate investment spreads are healthier today with higher cap rates and cost of capital, enhancing long-term returns despite similar nominal spreads. Higher cap rates lead to more accretive organic growth, reinvestment, dividends, debt reduction, and buybacks compared to the low-rate environment of early 2022. The current 8% cap rate and 6% cost of capital environment are more favorable for REITs than the previous 6% and 4% scenarios.

The REIT sector bounced back from a rough October with a strong +3.19% average total return in November. Small cap (+4.19%), mid cap (+3.70%), and large cap (+3.39%) REITs averaged gains in November, while micro caps (-0.81%) finished the month in the red. 74.19% of REIT securities had a positive total return in November.

The U.S. stock market is highly valued, driven by Big Tech and AI investments, with speculative fervor reminiscent of the late 1990s. Some REITs, like W.P. Carey, face challenges due to poor capital allocation and strategic missteps, leading to underperformance compared to tech stocks. Many other REITs, however, have been beaten down due to short-term supply headwinds and their treatment as bond proxies.

REITs achieved their 5th straight month in the black with a +3.09% average total return in September and +9.61% year to date. Mid-cap (+5.01%), large cap (+3.41%) and small cap REITs (+2.59%) averaged solid gains in September. Micro caps (-0.42%) again averaged a negative total return. 72.3% of REIT securities had a positive total return in September.

For income-focused investors willing to venture outside the United States, Canadian REITs offer appealing qualities as a potential portfolio diversifier alongside their larger and more established U.S. peers. Canadian REITs, on average, offer higher monthly dividend yields and trade at lower P/FFO multiples compared to their U.S. counterparts, but typically have weaker balance sheets with higher debt ratios. In this report, we take a quick look at 30 Canadian REITs and break down the industry on a sector-by-sector level. We also take a deep dive into H&R REIT.

The REIT sector continued to recover in June with a +1.12% average total return, but closed out the first half of the year in the red (-3.86%). Micro cap REITs (-3.79%) averaged a negative total return in June, but small caps (+1.01%), mid-caps (+2.29%) and large caps (+2.88%) finished in the black. 65.58% of REIT securities had a positive total return in June.