iShares Convertible Bond ETF

ICVT

Market cap $3.06B

We take a look at the action in business development companies through the first week of September and highlight some of the key themes we are watching. BDCs were mostly down on the week as valuations remain attractive in aggregate. Gladstone Capital Corp. issued a high-coupon convertible bond, reflecting limited growth prospects.

ICVT follows the convertible bond market, but it seems it cannot benefit from its main advantages. It does not optimize convexity or asset selection, two elements, in my opinion, essential for this investment category. However, US and index-based returns are hardly predictable, even compared to the S&P 500, although the equity beat is greater than zero.

ICVT offers attractive convexity and asymmetric downside protection in volatile, uncertain markets. ICVT is quite risk-on in general, approaching the volatility and correlation characteristics with markets and risk-on exposures like Bitcoin. Current macro and inflation conditions are stable, but exogenous risks—geopolitics, policy, and USD weakness—make ICVT's binary outcome hedge appealing.

April's market volatility, driven by tariffs and led by tech sector declines, created opportunities to deploy cash. However, it was an opportunity to reposition my portfolio as well, with 2 swap trades to de-risk my portfolio. There were 2 corporate actions in the last month that also saw two more positions removed from my CEF portfolio, but overall, I was a net buyer for the month.

ICVT is a convertible bond ETF with significant exposure to bitcoin via holdings in MicroStrategy and Coinbase, impacting its performance. Traditional convertible bonds are equity plays with low coupons, but iShares Convertible Bond ETF's performance is heavily influenced by bitcoin prices. The ETF has a high technology sector exposure and political risk through holdings in Alibaba and JD.

In mid-February 2025, some in the media will be excitedly discussing what stocks were bought or sold by hedge funds in Q4 2024. However, thanks to the Unlimited Hedge Fund Barometer, we can understand today that long/short equity managers were avoiding more cheaply valued small- and midcap stocks in favor of growth stocks.

iShares Convertible Bond ETF holds over 300 cash pay convertible bonds, with a focus on technology and consumer cyclicals. ICVT's track record is underwhelming: risk metrics are similar to those of a stock index while return is much lower, and distribution history was a roller-coaster. However, ICVT's correlation to stocks can enhance a tactical bond ETF portfolio during stock market uptrends.

iShares Convertible Bond ETF offers investors the benefits of equity upside without the same downside exposure. The ICVT ETF has a well-diversified portfolio with an effective duration of 1.40 years and a current 30-Day SEC Yield of 3.17%. The fund has a dominant exposure to the Tech sector, making it appealing for those bullish on Tech but seeking reduced equity volatility.

iShares Convertible Bond ETF has been stagnant compared to broader U.S. indices despite strong equity markets, particularly in tech. The equity component in the ICVT ETF, which is also exposed 40% to tech issues, should start to catch up. Moreover, we think maturity walls should start transmitting the more restrictive policy into markets and could allow for rate hikes soon to help the fixed income component.

Convertible bonds offer the potential for high rewards and diversification in a volatile market. The iShares Convertible Bond ETF is a recommended investment for 2024 due to its potential for competitive total returns. ICVT allows investors to participate in the resurgence of convertible securities and offers a balanced approach between stocks and bonds.