iShares Select U.S. REIT ETF

ICF

Market cap $1.92B

Year-to-date returns across the REIT market varied remarkably, with large gains from non-U.S. REITs and U.S. healthcare REITs, while U.S. residential and data center sectors were notable laggards. In the last three years, there have been two major forces impacting the performance of equity markets and real estate. Today's public REIT market looks a lot different than what most investors expect. Sectors previously considered niche have grown to be essential in today's economy and society.

The REIT sector has seen back-to-back tough months as it saw a modest average negative total return in September (-0.73%) and fell deeper into the red in October (-4.03%). Small cap REITs (-5.05%) had the worst performance in October. Micro caps (-2.81%), mid caps (-3.11%) and large caps (-4.45%) were also in negative territory albeit to a smaller degree. Only 21.66% of REIT securities had a positive total return in October.

Real estate earnings season kicks into gear this week, and over the next month, we'll hear results from 175 equity REITs, 40 mortgage REITs, and dozens of housing industry companies. One step forward, one back: Matching the stubborn performance pattern seen last year, REITs rallied ahead of the Fed's September rate cut but stumbled into the start of earnings season. In this report, we focus specifically on property-level fundamentals, previewing and forecasting REIT earnings performance based on an analysis of recent indicators across various sources.

U.S. equity markets rebounded this past week as the White House resumed negotiations with China following a major tariff threat, while investors focused on bank earnings that raised some eyebrows. Consistent with the "risk-off" theme that has prevailed amid the ongoing federal government shutdown with no resolution in sight, short-term Treasury yields receded to the lowest levels in three years. Buoyed by a dip in benchmark rates, real estate equities led the rebound this week after REIT earnings season began on a positive note with surprisingly strong industrial REIT results.

After a strong August, REITs faded slightly in September (-0.73%), pulling the REIT sector's year-to-date average total return down to (-1.74%). Mid-cap REITs (-0.92%) averaged the lowest total return in September. Large caps (-0.29%), micro caps (-0.79%), and small caps (-0.83%) averaged modestly smaller declines. Only 37.4% of REIT securities had a positive total return in September.

Public REITs remain a compelling portfolio diversifier, offering inflation protection, steady dividends, and downside risk mitigation amid a crowded investment landscape. REITs are currently undervalued, with double-digit total returns possible, supported by a 4% dividend yield and 4-6% annual growth. Despite recent outflows and competition from alternatives, a 10-20% allocation to real estate - mixing public and private - is still recommended for balanced portfolios.

For nearly five decades, US REITs have delivered stronger returns than broad US stocks in the 12 months following Federal Reserve easing cycles. Rate cuts may increase the attractiveness of REIT dividends, potentially making them a compelling option for investors seeking yield potential and portfolio diversification. Data centers, telecom infrastructure, and health care REITs have historically benefited the most from lower rates due to long-duration leases and capital-intensive models.

U.S. equity markets snapped a four-week winning streak, while benchmark interest rates rose as investors parsed a surprisingly strong slate of economic data, including a two-year high for GDP growth. The Citi Economic Surprise Index has completed a volatile round-trip this month, plunging in early September ahead of the Fed rate decision before rebounding sharply in recent weeks. The recent trend has echoed patterns during the prior Fed easing in late 2024, when mid-year weakness prompted a policy pivot that was subsequently cut short by a late-year economic rebound.

U.S. equity markets notched another series of record highs this past week after the Federal Reserve resumed its rate-cutting cycle following a nine-month pause and affirmed a "cautiously dovish" pivot. The Fed's decision to lower rates by a quarter point to 4.25% carried surprising unity following months of contentious political maneuvering, with all 12 members backing a rate cut. A bit unsettling for policymakers, longer-term yields rose this week, driven primarily by surprisingly solid retail sales and a dip in initial jobless claims that reversed a prior-week surge.

REITs performed very well in August (+5.48%), almost pulling the REIT sector's year-to-date total return back into the black (-1.11%). Small cap (+7.52%) and mid cap REITs (+7.13%) averaged strong gains in August while large caps (+3.16%) and micro caps (+0.87%) averaged more modest returns. 83.87% of REIT securities had a positive total return in August.