Hoya Capital Housing ETF

HOMZ

Market cap $35.2M

As REIT earnings season kicks into gear this week, we preview results and major sector trends based on recent operating indicators, company commentary, and real estate market data. REITs enter earnings season with solid momentum, outperforming the market despite elevated Treasury yields and geopolitical volatility, as investors refocus on earnings growth, property fundamentals, dividends, M&A, and capital allocation. Encouraging green shoots have become more plentiful, including resilient hotel demand, robust senior housing growth, improving apartment and industrial fundamentals, and a rebound in retail leasing following a softer Q1.

The prospect of an end to the war with Iran briefly sparked hopes lower oil prices and interest rates will boost housing.

REITs have refused to break in 2026 despite oil-driven inflation pressure, rising Treasury yields, and a Fed narrative that flipped from multiple rate cuts to potential hikes. The “Rates Up, REITs Down” regime has weakened, with REIT-rate correlations falling sharply as fundamentals, strategy, capital allocation, and valuation catalysts increasingly drive performance. M&A has helped break the rate-driven narrative, validating public-market discounts to NAV and proving that REITs can unlock value through consolidation, privatizations, and strategic alternatives.

Hoya Capital's David Auerbach talks solid REIT fundamentals despite elevated interest rates and macro volatility. Dividends rising and M&A activity intensifying, especially among small and mid-cap names.

Surging oil prices and hotter inflation reports reignited rate-hike concerns, sending Treasury yields to one-year highs as the Iran conflict remained stalemated despite the highly anticipated Trump-Xi summit.

U.S. equity markets advanced for a fifth straight week - their longest winning streak since 2024 - as strong earnings, resilient data, and hopes for lasting Iran peace fueled optimism. Investors looked through another oil-price surge and inflationary pressure, focusing instead on corporate resilience and economic strength despite a complex macro backdrop shaped by geopolitical and policy uncertainty. The Fed held rates steady in an unusually fractured 8-4 vote, while Powell's plan to remain on the Board broke precedent and raised politically charged succession questions.

REITs have underperformed since 2022 rate hikes, but Hoya Capital's David Auerbach says fundamentals are strong, especially among small and mid-cap names offering attractive yields. Interest rate sensitivity in REITs is often overstated.

Three years of persistent rate-driven pressure on the residential and commercial real estate market appears to finally be abating - and not a moment too soon. REITs were hit by a "triple whammy" of rate-related headwinds: higher borrowing costs directly squeezed profitability, eroded the relative appeal of REIT dividends, and made it near-impossible to grow accretively. Since the Fed's initial rate hike in March 2022, REITs have lagged the S&P 500 by a whopping 55 percentage points, nearly 3x the magnitude of underperformance seen in the GFC.

U.S. equity markets notched another series of record highs this week, surging into the weekend after surprisingly dovish commentary from Federal Reserve Chair Powell, who hinted at imminent rate cuts. Powell used his final Jackson Hole speech as Fed Chair to deliver a clear policy pivot, an unexpected reversal after months of insistence that tariff-related inflation warranted a hawkish framework. Markets were equally relieved by the policy-focused nature of Powell's speech amid speculation that the address may be used instead as a potential defiant sermon on central bank independence.

U.S. equity markets fell sharply this week, while benchmark interest rates retreated to three-month lows, after revised employment data showed that job growth was far weaker than initially reported. The BLS payrolls report showed softer-than-expected hiring in July and the steepest two-month downward revisions to jobs growth since 2020, raising concern that the Fed may be "behind the curve." The downward revisions came days after Fed Chair Powell used it as the primary evidence for "solid" labor markets, which justified the FOMC's decision to keep rates in "restrictive" territory.