iShares Currency Hedged MSCI Japan ETF

HEWJ

Market cap $408M

Solid growth and ongoing shareholder-friendly reforms are driving Japanese equity gains, keeping us overweight. We see the AI theme playing out globally.

As the global private equity industry took tentative steps toward recovery in 2024, Japan raced ahead. The value of private equity investment in Japan jumped nearly 41% over the prior-year total in 2024, far outpacing the 25% year-over-year gain in global private equity deal value, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data.

Today's data were a mixed bag, but the Bank of Japan will pay more attention to the sharp rise in Tokyo's inflation. Tokyo consumer prices rose more than expected to 2.6% YoY (vs 2.2% in July, 2.3% market consensus).

The Nikkei suffered its worst ever one-day slump this morning. There are plenty of technical efforts, and it might have been a perfect storm of slightly negative data that agglomerated together into poor sentiment, but Sahm's Rule looms. We think the primary driver of the declines in Japan, at least to the extent that they can be justified, comes down to the higher unemployment in the US.

The “real” policy rate is massively negative, with the new policy rate of 0.25% far below Core CPI of 2.6%. When QT reaches about ¥3 trillion per month in 2026, it would represent a reduction of its JGB holdings of about 0.5% per month.

Japan has been struggling for some time to generate enough velocity in inflation to escape the gravitational pull of deflation. The story for the rest of 2024 and into 2025 is now centered on whether inflation will be sustained at the BOJ's 2% target.

In March, the Bank of Japan abolished its 8-year-old negative interest rate policy, hiking rates for the first time in 17 years by raising its benchmark rate to 0-0.1%. To combat inflation while also avoiding an excessive surge in interest payments, the BOJ is considering passive quantitative tightening.

We'd rather downplay the weaker-than-expected manufacturing data and focus on a solid recovery in retail sales and a reacceleration in inflation, which will be welcomed by the Bank of Japan. Inflation has been quite choppy due to various government programmes and utility prices.

The iShares Currency Hedged MSCI Japan ETF has successfully taken advantage of the rise in Japanese indices while avoiding the depreciation of the Yen. The ETF benefits from a weak Yen, particularly in the automotive and industrial sectors, but imported inflation and consumer sentiment are hurting domestic demand. The carry trade is the key activity that is weakening the Yen even further, and it will be difficult to get that trade to unwind. Sustainable Japanese inflation is needed.

By end-April 2024, Japanese equities had outperformed the FTSE All-World index over 12 months and in the year to date. Japan has undertaken significant structural corporate reforms in recent years.