SPDR S&P China ETF

GXC

Market cap $521M

GXC (SPDR S&P China ETF) remains a buy, supported by improving profit expectations and solid year-to-date outperformance versus the S&P 500. The ETF trades at a modest sub-14x P/E, with large-cap, consumer discretionary, and communication services exposures dominating the portfolio. Liquidity is mixed—low average daily volume and wide bid/ask spreads necessitate limit orders, especially near market open.

Easing tensions between China and the U.S. may be supportive of markets. Still uncertainty amid plans for Trump to visit China in 2026.

Despite mounting macro headwinds at the start of the year, Chinese equities have continued to deliver positive performance. While near-term flows can provide further upside, the durability for the equity rally will hinge on policy choices ahead.

A phone call between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping on Friday may have lowered the temperature between the superpowers, but it yielded little in the way of firm agreements and appeared to leave the fate of a TikTok deal unresolved, according to policy experts.

China will continue to rise, but global dominance is unlikely due to significant trade headwinds and growing skepticism from both Western and Asian leaders. SPDR S&P China ETF is rated a Hold, as broad-based exposure faces risks from China's domestic challenges and international trade tensions. SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust is also a hold, given historically high U.S. valuations and concerns about softening lower-income consumption despite likely Fed rate cuts.

Among APAC equity markets, Australia has a higher beta to oil prices while India, Indonesia and Thailand have lower betas. Domestic political uncertainties have been one main reason for the decoupling trend seen in Indonesia and Thailand.

China's Q2 GDP growth met government targets at 5.2% YoY, but the recovery remains uneven beneath the headline numbers. High-tech manufacturing and services are driving growth, while real estate and retail sectors continue to struggle, highlighting structural challenges.

Both U.S. and Chinese stocks rallied due to a de-escalation in the trade war, boosting the S&P 500 and Hang Seng Indexes. I reiterate a 'Buy' rating on the SPDR S&P China ETF due to its attractive valuation and strong dividend yield. GXC has high exposure to large caps and a balanced mix of value, blend, and growth, despite a concentrated allocation in consumer discretionary and communication services.

Has the AI trade moved to China? Why Chinese chipmakers may soon change the semiconductor space.

One of the top themes year-to-date has been China-focused technology ETFs. China technology stocks have surged on AI enthusiasm related to China startup DeepSeek's AI model launch.