iShares 25+ Year Treasury STRIPS Bond ETF

GOVZ

Market cap $313M

The iShares 25+ Year Treasury STRIPS Bond ETF (GOVZ) offers ultra-long duration exposure, making it highly sensitive to changes in long-term rates. GOVZ faces significant risks from a steepening yield curve, or from long-term inflationary effects independent of impacts from immediate cuts. If rates fall, that is inflationary and could reflect institutional erosion to political pressures. If they don't fall it will pressure the fiscal outlook given maturity walls.

The iShares 25+ Year Treasury STRIPS Bond ETF (GOVZ) tracks an index of U.S. Treasury STRIPS with maturities of 25+ years, holding 22 zero-coupon securities with no credit risk. With a duration of 26.6 years, GOVZ is highly sensitive to interest rate changes; a 1% yield drop increases its price by ~26.6%, making it more volatile than its peers. Since early 2025, the U.S. yield curve's front end (controlled by Fed policy) has flattened, while the long end (10+ years) has widened, reflecting market concerns over fiscal deficits.

The iShares 25+ Year Treasury STRIPS Bond ETF faces pressure from inflation expectations impacting structural rates. GOVZ's long duration and sensitivity to long-term rate changes make it vulnerable to inflation re-anchoring. GOVZ is too speculative, given the uncertain rate environment and the potential for inflation to be harder to control than anticipated.

We think the Fed has time to assess the impact of tariffs, and we expect it to wait to cut rates until the data show that tariffs are impacting the real economy. So far, there are no signs of recession in the hard data. The tariff pause offers the possibility to avoid worst-case economic scenarios before the damage is crystalized. We believe technical factors will continue to drive market dislocations in spreads and sectors, and that active managers can navigate this more effectively.

The 10-year yields drop to the lowest level since December, driving Treasury ETFs higher.

We previously issued a “Strong Sell” on iShares 25+ Year Treasury STRIPS Bond ETF, as the model we follow showed an extreme level of overvaluation. GOVZ's long duration makes it highly sensitive to yield changes, with an effective duration of 26.57 years. We dissect the current data and tell you why Treasuries are beginning to look appealing.

Investing in STRIPS, especially through the iShares 25+ Year Treasury STRIPS Bond ETF, offers a pure play on long-term interest rates without regular coupon payments. GOVZ holds U.S. Treasury STRIPS with an average maturity of 27.21 years, making it highly sensitive to interest rate changes and ideal for targeting specific durations. GOVZ's unmatched duration exposure is beneficial for investors predicting long-term rate drops, though it carries significant risks if rates rise due to its high sensitivity.

The ECB cut rates by 25bp as widely anticipated, but a slightly hawkish tilt bear flattened the EUR curve, which in our view remains priced aggressively. In the US, as the markets head towards the Fed's first rate cut, the probability of a larger cut rose slightly on Thursday.

We have highlighted three ETFs each from the best and worst-performing zones of last week.

Treasuries are poised for their longest monthly winning streak in three years on September rate cut bets.