VanEck China Growth Leaders ETF

GLCN

Market cap $11.6M

China and Hong Kong markets had a humbling 2023 with equities down more than 10%. Beijing has also begun stepping up tourism and travel promotions, granting visa-free entry to 11 countries, with Singapore and Thailand the latest to be included.

China's January CPI inflation was weaker than forecast at -0.8% YoY, which marks the lowest level since September 2009. We expect this to mark the bottom of the current cycle.

Why China May Need To Do More To Boost Investor Confidence

The Chinese economy is stabilising, but the only fireworks will come from the new year celebrations, which begin on February 11, as momentum remains weak. China's GDP growth for the fourth quarter rose from 4.9% year-on-year to 5.2%, bringing 2023 full-year growth to 5.2% YoY, exceeding the 5% growth target set at last year's Two Sessions.

While recent policy announcements and data surprises have generated some optimism, we maintain a cautious stance on China's economic prospects. We believe weak consumption trends, a downbeat labor market and continuing property sector headwinds should all weigh on the economy in the coming quarters.

China's government is finally moving to stimulate the economy after its sluggish post-COVID reopening.

Chinese stock prices have lost money in the 16 years since 2007 and are now back near 2005 levels. Chinese treasury bonds have rallied sharply as beaten-up capital capitulates out of riskier markets and back to the relative safety of government bonds.

India's potential for economic growth lies in its young population, business-friendly reforms, and technology sectors. To unlock this potential, India needs long-term policies to address structural constraints and short-term infrastructure investments.

Mainland Chinese economy shows signs of regaining growth momentum in November, with higher output, new orders, and improved business conditions. Business expectations remain below average, leading to job cuts for the third consecutive month.