Golub Capital BDC

GBDC

Market cap $3.36B

We take a look at the action in business development companies through the fourth week of May and highlight some of the key themes we are watching. BDC sector saw a -2.5% average return this week, with sentiment and valuations near 1-year lows despite stable credit metrics. Median NII declined nearly 6% in Q1, but the downward trend is expected to moderate as spreads widen and deal activity recovers.

Dividend investing provides a consistent income stream, beneficial for those seeking passive income, while growth stocks may require selling shares to realize gains. Seeking dividend income does not rule out focusing on the growth of the portfolio's nominal value, thanks to many funds that see their NAV grow over time. These securities offer a dual advantage: immediate returns through regular, periodic distributions, and capital appreciation through long-term NAV increase.

There is a principle I have followed for 30 years in this business. When the smartest credit team on the planet starts aggressively buying a beaten-down asset class they understand better than anyone alive, you do not sit on your hands and debate whether the timing is perfect.

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Golub Capital BDC, Inc. (the “Company,” “we,” “us” or “our”), a business development company (Nasdaq: GBDC), announced that it has priced an underwritten public offering of $500 million in aggregate principal amount of 6.250% notes due 2031 (the “Notes”). The Notes will mature on June 1, 2031 and may be redeemed in whole or in part at the Company's option at any time prior to May 1, 2031, at par plus a “make-whole” premium, and thereafter at par. Wells Fargo Securitie.

The BDC sector has been hit hard since July 2025. However, I think the tide may be about to turn with a bright future ahead for some companies in the sector. I share which BDC names I think are poised to outperform moving forward.

More than 1,500 stocks have reported earnings since the current season began in mid-April, and the average stock that has reported has seen an average absolute one-day share price reaction of roughly 7%. The last time we saw earnings vol spike was during the Financial Crisis bear market, when stocks were tanking. This time around, we're seeing earnings vol increase during a strong AI-driven bull market. Tech stocks are seeing record earnings day volatility as investors and traders presumably make snap judgements about AI's future impact on the bottom line.

These shares offer big yields but far more stability than investors expect. Recent market downturns enabled attractive entry points for big yields with capital gains. It's best to prepare for these opportunities in advance. Because we were already evaluating these shares regularly, we were able to jump on opportunities during the big dip.

Golub Capital BDC cut its dividend by 15% in Q1 '26, improving dividend coverage to 100% in Q2 '26 amid portfolio contraction and rising non-accruals. GBDC's portfolio shrank 3.5% year-over-year, with interest income and net investment income declining 12% Y/Y and 13% Y/Y respectively, driven by high loan repayments and compressing yields. Non-accruals doubled year-over-year to 1.4% at fair value, but the BDC is not facing systematic underwriting failures in its SaaS portfolio.

Golub Capital BDC remains a Hold as portfolio quality deteriorates but largely tracks broader BDC sector trends. Nonaccrual loans rose to 1.4% (fair value), and PIK income increased to 9%, signaling some credit stress. GBDC's software exposure (26% of portfolio) is mostly first lien, with only 8% facing elevated AI disruption risk.

BDC sector Q1 2026 earnings reveal widespread NAV contractions, impacting both discounted and premium BDCs. Despite NAV declines and negative price reactions, these adjustments are logical and not a signal to exit the BDC space. Price-to-NAV ratios remain attractive, with several BDCs trading at significant discounts post-earnings.