Golub Capital BDC

GBDC

Market cap $3.64B

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Golub Capital BDC, Inc., a business development company (NASDAQ: GBDC, www.golubcapitalbdc.com), announced today that it will report its financial results for the quarter ended December 31, 2025 on Wednesday, February 4, 2026 after the close of the financial markets. Golub Capital BDC, Inc. will host an earnings conference call at 10:00 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Thursday, February 5, 2026 to discuss its quarterly financial results. All interested parties may participate.

Golub Capital BDC faces near-term risk of a 25–35% dividend cut, prompting a downgrade from hold to sell. GBDC's dividend coverage has tightened, with FY NII of $1.56 below the $1.65 paid in dividends, and leverage rising to 1.23x. Declining base rates, tighter spreads, and credit headwinds have pressured GBDC's earnings, NAV, and portfolio quality.

Blue-chip dividend stocks are generally excellent investments for investors who prioritize a combination of income, total returns, and risk management. Two widely trusted blue-chip dividend stocks may be increasingly at-risk of a sharp pullback. I take a look at why this is the case.

Investors have started to question how sustainable BDC dividends are. A lot of this skepticism is logical and justified by valid reasons. My calculus shows that on average BDCs could cut their dividends by 20% in order to avoid NAV erosion.

Over the past 4 quarters, Golub Capital BDC has managed to shield its adjusted NII per share from the sector-wide headwinds. Yet, it all has came at the expense of prudent debt profile and healthy long-term earnings (via fees from elevated repayment activity). Looking at the most recent financial data, the dividend cut seems imminent.

Recent economic data and stock price valuations have recently become disconnected in two high-yielding blue-chip stocks. This presents a rare golden buying opportunity. I share why these 11%+ yields are compelling buys on the recent dip and what risks still linger.

The rebound that began in April on stock markets around the world is leading to a positive double-digit year-end close for Wall Street. This increase has been partially reflected in my portfolio, which focuses on high-dividend securities, showing a gain of more than 6% against the cost basis. In addition, there has been a recent flurry of positive news regarding various special year-end distributions announced by several funds in my portfolio.

Top ten GASV stocks offer projected average net gains of 50.81% by December 2026, with yields ranging from 8.16% to 12.74%. Seventeen of thirty 'safer' lowest-priced GASV stocks are currently fair-priced and ideal for dividend-focused investors seeking value. Analyst targets suggest the five lowest-priced, highest-yield GASV stocks could deliver 21.77% higher gains than the broader top ten group.

Golub Capital (GBDC) trades at an 8% discount to book value and is rated a buy, with a fair value estimate of $14.97. GBDC's portfolio is 92% first-lien, well-diversified, and has a historically low non-accrual ratio, mitigating credit risk. Despite under-covering its dividend with GAAP NII, GBDC's low PIK income and strong asset quality support confidence in dividend sustainability.

BDCs face earnings pressure from lower base rates, but fears of severe dividend cuts are overstated. Quite many BDCs have several levers to pull in order to absorb ~100 bps of base rate cuts without touching their dividends. Yet, I would say that the non-accrual risk is understated.