Golub Capital BDC

GBDC

Market cap $3.47B

Golub Capital BDC is an above-average BDC, prudently managed with a conservative underwriting approach and attractive fee structure. I take a look at the recent performance of the business and revisit my investing thesis. I examine the sustainability of GBDC's dividend and share my outlook on the stock.

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Golub Capital BDC, Inc., a business development company (NASDAQ: GBDC, www.golubcapitalbdc.com) (“GBDC”), announced today that it will report its financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026 on Monday, August 3, 2026 after the close of the financial markets. Golub Capital BDC, Inc. will host an earnings conference call at 10:00 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Tuesday, August 4, 2026 to discuss its quarterly financial results. All interested parties may register to par.

The risk-return tradeoff is the financial principle according to which potentially higher returns require accepting higher risk. Risk is the potential for monetary loss or default stemming from market volatility, excessive debt, or unexpected economic downturns. When it comes to volatility, the main culprit is often leverage—the use of borrowed money to fund investments with the goal of multiplying returns.

Two of the most defensively positioned, highest-yielding opportunities in years are hiding in plain sight. One combines a 7%+ yield with strong long-term growth potential and is backed by powerful macro tailwinds. The other yields 12%, trades at a deep discount, has a solid business model and balance sheet, and is buying back stock aggressively.

Golub Capital BDC maintains a sell rating due to persistent NAV declines, thin dividend coverage, and lack of growth catalysts. GBDC trades at a 13.94% discount to NAV, but ongoing unrealized depreciation and negative net portfolio activity undermine confidence in near-term upside. Software exposure (26% of assets) remains a key risk, especially amid AI-driven sector headwinds and sentiment-driven volatility.

We take a look at the action in business development companies through the fourth week of May and highlight some of the key themes we are watching. BDC sector saw a -2.5% average return this week, with sentiment and valuations near 1-year lows despite stable credit metrics. Median NII declined nearly 6% in Q1, but the downward trend is expected to moderate as spreads widen and deal activity recovers.

Dividend investing provides a consistent income stream, beneficial for those seeking passive income, while growth stocks may require selling shares to realize gains. Seeking dividend income does not rule out focusing on the growth of the portfolio's nominal value, thanks to many funds that see their NAV grow over time. These securities offer a dual advantage: immediate returns through regular, periodic distributions, and capital appreciation through long-term NAV increase.

There is a principle I have followed for 30 years in this business. When the smartest credit team on the planet starts aggressively buying a beaten-down asset class they understand better than anyone alive, you do not sit on your hands and debate whether the timing is perfect.

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Golub Capital BDC, Inc. (the “Company,” “we,” “us” or “our”), a business development company (Nasdaq: GBDC), announced that it has priced an underwritten public offering of $500 million in aggregate principal amount of 6.250% notes due 2031 (the “Notes”). The Notes will mature on June 1, 2031 and may be redeemed in whole or in part at the Company's option at any time prior to May 1, 2031, at par plus a “make-whole” premium, and thereafter at par. Wells Fargo Securitie.

The BDC sector has been hit hard since July 2025. However, I think the tide may be about to turn with a bright future ahead for some companies in the sector. I share which BDC names I think are poised to outperform moving forward.