Invesco CurrencyShares Euro Currency Trust

FXE

Market cap $528M

Over the last 100 trading days, or roughly five months, the S&P 500 Index (SPX) has surged more than 25%.

French bond yields have risen significantly against German bunds and are likely to stay elevated or potentially move higher. The European Central Bank still appears to be a reliable backstop against excessive bond turmoil.

The euro has been in a strong bullish trend against the U.S. dollar throughout 2025, supported by macroeconomic and policy factors. Key drivers for euro strength include U.S. debt concerns, lower U.S. interest rate prospects, and trade policy impacts on the dollar. Risks to the euro's rally include European debt issues, geopolitical tensions, and potential flight-to-safety flows into the dollar.

The Euro has rallied 16.23% against the U.S. dollar in 2025, breaking key technical resistance and maintaining a bullish trend. FXE ETF effectively tracks the Euro/USD exchange rate, offering liquidity and convenience for investors seeking Euro exposure in standard brokerage accounts. Despite the Euro's strength versus the dollar, gold has outperformed both, becoming the second-largest reserve asset for central banks, surpassing the Euro.

Despite recent inflows into FXE and euro strength, I believe U.S. equities and bonds remain the superior long-term allocation for global investors. The underlying narrative is bearish on the dollar, but in my view, it's not a trend justified from an intermarket perspective. That's why I believe the signs of overextension could trigger a contrarian market reaction.

FXE ETF gained about 14% in 2025 as euro gains steam versus the U.S. dollar ETF UUP. Policy shifts, solid EU GDP & fading demand for U.S. assets are driving the move.

For investors seeking momentum, Invesco CurrencyShares Euro Trust FXE is probably on the radar. The fund just hit a 52-week high and is up 13.16% from its 52-week low price of $94.08/share.

U.S. stocks have been witnessing massive sell-offs this month due to trade tensions. However, these ETFs survived the bloodbath.

FXE provides unleveraged exposure to EUR/USD, making it a hedging option for the U.S. dollar. Its recent rally has been fueled by market optimism related to Germany's potential for fiscal expansion and the ECB's indication that it might go slower on reducing the borrowing costs. The current threats to market expectations make FXE's trajectory quite precarious, and investors may want to consider alternatives if a hedge against the dollar is ultimately what they seek.

Absolute Return Partners is a London-based investment advisory business. Founded by Niels Jensen in 2002, it focuses on providing bespoke alternative investment solutions to institutional investors.