Invesco CurrencyShares Euro Currency Trust

FXE

Market cap $354M

European shares moved higher on Friday as investors responded positively to signs of progress in peace talks between the United States and Iran, despite both sides continuing to disagree on several major issues. The pan-European STOXX 600 index rose 0.5% to 623.79 points by 0703 GMT and was on track to close the week with gains.

Invesco CurrencyShares Euro Currency Trust ETF (FXE) has delivered a 15% gain over 12 months, reflecting euro strength against the US dollar. FXE's rally was driven by stable ECB policy and uncertainty at the Fed, with US government actions further weighing on the dollar. The ECB is expected to hold rates steady, while Fed policy faces uncertainty with Kevin Warsh's appointment as Chair, potentially limiting further USD declines.

Over the last 100 trading days, or roughly five months, the S&P 500 Index (SPX) has surged more than 25%.

French bond yields have risen significantly against German bunds and are likely to stay elevated or potentially move higher. The European Central Bank still appears to be a reliable backstop against excessive bond turmoil.

The euro has been in a strong bullish trend against the U.S. dollar throughout 2025, supported by macroeconomic and policy factors. Key drivers for euro strength include U.S. debt concerns, lower U.S. interest rate prospects, and trade policy impacts on the dollar. Risks to the euro's rally include European debt issues, geopolitical tensions, and potential flight-to-safety flows into the dollar.

The Euro has rallied 16.23% against the U.S. dollar in 2025, breaking key technical resistance and maintaining a bullish trend. FXE ETF effectively tracks the Euro/USD exchange rate, offering liquidity and convenience for investors seeking Euro exposure in standard brokerage accounts. Despite the Euro's strength versus the dollar, gold has outperformed both, becoming the second-largest reserve asset for central banks, surpassing the Euro.

Despite recent inflows into FXE and euro strength, I believe U.S. equities and bonds remain the superior long-term allocation for global investors. The underlying narrative is bearish on the dollar, but in my view, it's not a trend justified from an intermarket perspective. That's why I believe the signs of overextension could trigger a contrarian market reaction.

FXE ETF gained about 14% in 2025 as euro gains steam versus the U.S. dollar ETF UUP. Policy shifts, solid EU GDP & fading demand for U.S. assets are driving the move.

For investors seeking momentum, Invesco CurrencyShares Euro Trust FXE is probably on the radar. The fund just hit a 52-week high and is up 13.16% from its 52-week low price of $94.08/share.

U.S. stocks have been witnessing massive sell-offs this month due to trade tensions. However, these ETFs survived the bloodbath.