Invesco CurrencyShares British Pound Sterling Trust

FXB

Market cap $90.4M

The mood of British consumers dampened a little this month, with expectations of a slowing economy and the potential for tax increases later this year threatening an even greater downturn.

The Bank of England held its Bank Rate at 4.00% in September, reflecting a more unified and cautious stance amid persistent inflation risks. MPC members overwhelmingly supported maintaining rates and continuing quantitative tightening, reducing gilt holdings by £70 billion over the next year.

UK inflation remained stable in August, with headline and core CPI readings aligning with expectations and showing only modest shifts in goods and services. Energy and food prices continue to exert upward pressure, but underlying measures, especially in services, suggest some easing in inflationary trends.

UK July CPI surprised to the upside, driven by volatile components like energy and airfares, but underlying inflation pressures remain nuanced. Core and services inflation are still firm, but much of the persistence is due to one-off or volatile factors rather than broad-based demand.

The Bank of England paused rate cuts at 4.25%, reflecting caution amid weakening UK growth and labor market data. Recent inflation data aligns with BoE forecasts, but risks remain two-sided.

UK inflation surged in April, driven by higher utility bills and holiday travel, with CPI rising 1.2% MoM and 3.5% YoY, exceeding expectations. Core inflation also accelerated, highlighting persistent services sector price pressures, while goods inflation remained subdued and some categories like clothing saw deflation.

The Bank of England cut its Bank Rate by 25 bps to 4.25%, reflecting a cautious approach amid inflation concerns and slowing growth. The decision was highly contested, with members divided between a larger cut and holding rates steady, ultimately opting for a middle ground.

February's UK CPI inflation data came in below expectations, with headline CPI at 2.8% YoY and core CPI at 3.5% YoY. Energy and food prices contributed to inflation, but energy remains deflationary YoY; food, alcohol, and tobacco prices are significant inflation drivers.

Peter Toogood, chief investment officer at Embark Group, discusses U.K. and European equity markets and the productivity issues affecting them.

With services inflation still elevated, the Bank of England is treading more carefully towards lower interest rates than the Federal Reserve. That suggests the committee will vote for no change this month.