First Watch Restaurant Group

FWRG

Market cap $786M

First Watch (FWRG) remains a buy despite weaker 2026 guidance and near-term sector headwinds. FWRG targets 12–14% revenue growth in 2026, driven by 9% new locations, 1% from franchise buybacks, and 1–3% comps. Long-term thesis is intact: FWRG aims for 2,200 locations and national scale, justifying a growth premium.

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. remains a Hold as growth slows, with FY 2026 guidance disappointing versus prior expectations. FWRG's same-store sales growth is projected to decelerate to 1–3%, and adjusted EBITDA margin guidance implies no operational leverage gains. Valuation remains stretched at 55.9x FY 2026 P/E, with fair value estimated in the low teens and limited upside or downside asymmetry.

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

First Watch grew revenue by 20% in Q4 and tripled analysts' expectations for earnings per share. However, its soft 2026 guidance amid broader macroeconomic pressures sent shares down.

While the top- and bottom-line numbers for First Watch Restaurant Group (FWRG) give a sense of how the business performed in the quarter ended December 2025, it could be worth looking at how some of its key metrics compare to Wall Street estimates and year-ago values.

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.24 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.08 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.01 per share a year ago.

BRADENTON, Fla., Feb. 24, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: FWRG) (“First Watch” or the “Company”), the leading Daytime Dining concept serving breakfast, brunch and lunch, today reported financial results for the thirteen weeks ended December 28, 2025 (“Q4 2025”) and the 52-week fiscal year ended December 28, 2025 (“2025”) compared to the thirteen weeks ended December 29, 2024 (“Q4 2024”) and the 52-week fiscal year ended December 29, 2024 (“2024”) and provided an outlook for the 52-week fiscal year ending December 27, 2026 (“2026”).

BRADENTON, Fla., Feb. 24, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (Nasdaq: FWRG) (“First Watch” or the “Company”), the leading Daytime Dining concept serving breakfast, brunch and lunch, announced today that Chief Financial Officer Mel Hope has informed the Company of his intent to retire later this year. The Company has commenced a process to identify his successor, considering both internal and external candidates. It is expected that Hope will remain as Chief Financial Officer until his successor is in place to ensure a seamless transition and serve as an advisor to the Company for a period thereafter.

BRADENTON, Fla., Feb. 24, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: FWRG) (“First Watch” or the “Company”), the leading Daytime Dining concept serving breakfast, brunch and lunch, today reported financial results for the thirteen weeks ended December 28, 2025 (“Q4 2025”) and the 52-week fiscal year ended December 28, 2025 (“2025”) compared to the thirteen weeks ended December 29, 2024 (“Q4 2024”) and the 52-week fiscal year ended December 29, 2024 (“2024”) and provided an outlook for the 52-week fiscal year ending December 27, 2026 (“2026”).

First Watch Restaurant Group (FWRG) doesn't possess the right combination of the two key ingredients for a likely earnings beat in its upcoming report. Get prepared with the key expectations.