First Watch Restaurant Group

FWRG

Market cap $644M

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. delivered positive same-store sales and margin expansion, but growth is increasingly reliant on new restaurant openings rather than organic traffic. FWRG's premium positioning is a double-edged sword amid macro headwinds, with average check growth offsetting declining traffic and mix; comps rose 2.8% despite traffic falling ~2%. Restaurant-level margins benefited from egg price deflation, but normalized margins (18–19%) are expected until organic top-line growth improves; FCF was modestly positive, with net debt at ~$229M.

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Although the revenue and EPS for First Watch Restaurant Group (FWRG) give a sense of how its business performed in the quarter ended March 2026, it might be worth considering how some key metrics compare with Wall Street estimates and the year-ago numbers.

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) came out with a quarterly loss of $0.04 per share versus the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $0.02. This compares to a loss of $0.01 per share a year ago.

Same-restaurant sales growth of 2.8% Total revenues increased 17.3% Net loss of $(2.7) million and Adjusted EBITDA of $27.8 million 16 new system-wide restaurants opened in 11 states BRADENTON, Fla., May 05, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: FWRG) (“First Watch” or the “Company”), the leading Daytime Dining concept serving breakfast, brunch and lunch, today reported financial results for the thirteen weeks ended March 29, 2026 (“Q1 2026”).

First Watch Restaurant Group (FWRG) possesses the right combination of the two key ingredients for a likely earnings beat in its upcoming report. Get prepared with the key expectations.

First Watch (FWRG) remains a buy despite weaker 2026 guidance and near-term sector headwinds. FWRG targets 12–14% revenue growth in 2026, driven by 9% new locations, 1% from franchise buybacks, and 1–3% comps. Long-term thesis is intact: FWRG aims for 2,200 locations and national scale, justifying a growth premium.

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. remains a Hold as growth slows, with FY 2026 guidance disappointing versus prior expectations. FWRG's same-store sales growth is projected to decelerate to 1–3%, and adjusted EBITDA margin guidance implies no operational leverage gains. Valuation remains stretched at 55.9x FY 2026 P/E, with fair value estimated in the low teens and limited upside or downside asymmetry.

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

First Watch grew revenue by 20% in Q4 and tripled analysts' expectations for earnings per share. However, its soft 2026 guidance amid broader macroeconomic pressures sent shares down.