Franklin FTSE Brazil ETF

FLBR

Market cap $215M

FLBR, which offers cost-efficient access to 71 Brazilian stocks, is up by 22% since we last covered it, but a shift in stance may now be warranted. The Brazilian macroeconomic backdrop is looking quite unsteady with weak GDP trends, steep inflation, high interest rates, tariff pressure, and adverse loan growth appetite. FLBR's dividend yield has declined to around 5% (5-year average is 7.7%), with payout cuts of Brazilian enterprises and potential tax reforms threatening future distributions.

I recommend holding assets tracking major Brazilian indices despite new US tariffs, given heightened uncertainty and market volatility. Trump's 50% tariff on all Brazilian products will significantly impact Brazil's export-dependent economy, especially in commodities like oil and iron ore.

I recommend holding the Franklin FTSE Brazil ETF due to improved momentum but caution over potential political volatility. President Lula's declining approval and potential trial of former President Bolsonaro could cause market instability. Despite strong performance, Brazil's macroeconomic issues and political risks warrant a cautious approach.

FLBR: Why Brazilian Equities Are A Strong Buy

Recommend holding Franklin FTSE Brazil ETF due to inflation exceeding targets and increasing complexity in Brazilian investments. The government's spending cut package fell short, raising skepticism about Brazil's public debt trajectory. The Brazilian stock market has reached extremely cheap levels, but with justification.

I am downgrading my recommendation to hold the Franklin FTSE Brazil ETF due to deteriorating factors like the dollar and electricity prices in Brazil. Despite Brazilian assets being historically cheap, a new cycle of high interest rates will delay multiple expansions, making the risk/return unattractive. Potential risks include the Fed possibly cutting US interest rates, which could give Brazil's Central Bank room to maintain or cut rates later.

FLBR: Exaggerated Pessimism Opens Up An Opportunity

FLBR has delivered negative returns of 17% and underperformed emerging markets and global stocks in 2024. Despite the adverse performance so far, we are now prepared to turn more optimistic on FLBR as some key macro-economic variables are in a better place. Despite an unappealing payout in June, FLBR's yield of over 7.3% still looks very compelling.

FLBR offers a strong value profile with a high dividend yield (9.33% in 2023), trading at 1.5x book value and 8x earnings. However, there are concerns about Brazilian President Lula's interventionist policies towards key sectors like energy and materials. While Brazil's export-oriented economy could mitigate domestic macroeconomic risks, the volatility of commodities and potential boom-and-bust cycles, along with political risks, temper the attractiveness of FLBR.

Emerging markets continued to expand at a solid pace midway into the first quarter of 2024, supported by broad-based expansion across both manufacturing and service sectors.