Franklin FTSE Brazil ETF

FLBR

Market cap $554M

A Brazilian Senate committee on Wednesday advanced a bill to grant the central bank financial autonomy, boosting its independence in a move opposed by President Luiz ​Inacio Lula da Silva's administration.

U.S Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said that the investigation under Section 301 was launched at the direction of U.S. President Donald Trump.

Brazil expects to raise 50 billion reais ($9.92 billion) in what will be the most ambitious auction yet under its Eco ​Invest program, focused on developing advanced sustainable technologies in strategic ‌sectors, Rogerio Ceron, executive secretary of the Finance Ministry, told Reuters.

Despite a downward trend for several weeks at the beginning of the year, in spring 2026 the S&P 500 has once again shot upward, achieving fresh new all-time highs in the process. Still, even the most bullish investors may be wondering how long the trend can continue, given the prolonged war in Iran and its impacts on the global oil market—not to mention preexisting factors like inflation, aggressive interest rate hikes, and more.

Brazil's current P/E of 12.5x versus emerging markets' 16.2x suggests a potential 29% upside if re-rating occurs post-election. Risks include Lula's political resilience, judicial influence, and historical underperformance at similar P/E levels, necessitating careful timing and monitoring.

I am raising my recommendation on the Franklin FTSE Brazil ETF from hold to buy, citing strong forward drivers. Brazil's 2026 outperformance is driven by election optimism and the market's search for AI-resilient, commodity-sensitive economies. FLBR's valuation is undergoing multiple repricings, with potential upside if P/E multiples converge with emerging market peers.

The ongoing Iran war and Strait of Hormuz blockade have sharply disrupted global energy and fertilizer flows, with Brazil facing acute exposure. Brazil benefits from higher oil prices as a net exporter, but inflation and logistics costs are rising, pressuring domestic fuel and transport sectors.

Brazilian equities (EWZ, FLBR) face a nuanced bull case driven by foreign capital inflows and anticipated interest rate cuts from 15% to 10.5% by 2027. Despite a 53% BRL rally in the Ibovespa, local investors remain cautious due to persistent fiscal risks, political uncertainty, and low equity risk premiums.

Investors poured twice as much into emerging markets in January as in all of 2025, betting on a weaker dollar and hedging U.S. risk.

Franklin FTSE Brazil ETF remains attractively valued despite outperforming emerging markets by over 10 percentage points in 2025. FLBR targets mid- and large-cap Brazilian stocks, with an average market cap around $35 billion and a 0.19% management fee. Key performance drivers include strong gains in Brazilian banking stocks like ITUB and BBD, supporting FLBR's resilience.