iShares MSCI Philippines ETF

EPHE

Market cap $102M

iShares MSCI Philippines ETF stands out as a compelling value play amid globally stretched valuations. U.S. and other developed markets appear fully priced, while emerging markets, especially the Philippines, offer attractive P/E ratios. EPHE provides exposure to the Philippines, currently one of the world's cheapest markets by P/E, suggesting strong relative value.

Philippines' macro backdrop is improving, with accelerating GDP growth, easing inflation, and supportive monetary policy likely to boost EPHE's prospects. EPHE offers compelling value, trading at deep discounts to peers on both earnings and cash flow, alongside a decent yield above most Asian and global markets. Industrial sector recovery and favorable export conditions further support the ETF, while technicals suggest mean reversion potential after prolonged underperformance.

It has been 225 days since President Trump's Inauguration on January 20th, and the S&P 500 entered today up 8% since the last close before the Inauguration. Speaking of the G7, the US has been the worst market among these seven developed nations since Inauguration Day in January. Along with being the second-best performing country ETF since Inauguration Day, Vietnamhas easily been the best performer since April 8th with a gain of 77.5%.

President Donald Trump said the US reached an agreement with the Philippines setting a 19% tariff on the country's exports. Trump announced the deal on social media after meeting with Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr, stating "The Philippines will pay a 19% Tariff" and that the countries will work together militarily.

The Philippine stock market (represented by EPHE) currently trades an attractive earnings multiple of just 11x, compared to 20x earlier in the decade. I am concerned, however, by the slow-growth nature of some of its holdings and the degree to which some companies are controlled by families. Given that since inception, EPHE has provided a total return of just 26.5% versus 546% from the S&P 500, investors need a very convincing reason to invest in the ETF.

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The iShares MSCI Philippines ETF which covers 32 stocks from the Philippines has experienced a volatile 2024 and is underperforming EMs quite significantly. EPHE's Q3 GDP was hampered by Tycoon Kristine, but the growth prospects for next year look more alluring. Manufacturing PMIs reflect healthy conditions in the industrial sector (the largest sector exposure), while the investment climate is also getting an uplift from favorable reforms.

US equities have outperformed the rest of the world for a long time now. While the US is up 58% on a total return basis during the current bull market, the rest of the world is up 13.5 percentage points less at +44.5%. Looking at the international dividend ETF over a longer time frame, over the last five years, it's up 20.6% in price and more than double that on a total return basis.

Philippine large caps have been in decline for over a decade now. Fundamentals offer little evidence of a change in fortunes. Pending a meaningful shift in the investment case, I'd remain sidelined.

The Philippines is an interesting investment prospect due to its dynamic economy, young population, and proximity to Asian markets. As tensions in the South China Sea escalate, the US/Philippines relationship is strengthening, which could be a boon for equity markets.