VictoryShares US Large Cap High Div Volatility Wtd ETF

CDL

Market cap $385M

Dividend stocks and defensive sectors have dramatically outperformed as investors flee AI-vulnerable and AI-spending industries, but valuations now appear stretched. Consumer staples and energy sectors trade at historically high forward P/E multiples, often exceeding the S&P 500, despite lower long-term earnings growth prospects. Materials and industrials have also become extended, with valuations reflecting significant future earnings already priced in, especially given AI infrastructure spending.

Dividend stocks have sharply outperformed AI-related tech stocks since November 2025, reversing a multi-year trend. I see the rally in dividend ETFs like SCHD as overextended, prompting a pause in new purchases despite recent gains. AI is likely to benefit users more than makers, with sectors like banks, energy, and consumer staples positioned as early winners.

VictoryShares US Large Cap High Div Volatility Wtd ETF brings together the high dividend and low volatility factors, with a touch of quality. With a portfolio having a 5.6% weighted average EY and a 24-month beta of 0.43, CDL is beating IVV this year amid the rotation, as investors are abandoning growthier names. Nevertheless, I remain skeptical about CDL owing to its anemic historical upside capture and significant underperformance vs. the S&P 500 ETF since 2015.

Some end-of-year Big Picture thoughts, including on the demographic destiny of falling population growth and the headwinds to economic growth that come with it. Why tariff-driven inflation is unlikely to generate anything more than a short-term bump followed by continued disinflation. Why the huge amount of cash on the sidelines could progressively become a tailwind to other types of financial assets, including dividend-paying stocks.

I plan to diversify my REIT-heavy portfolio by systematically allocating to four dividend-focused ETFs in 2026. US economic growth remains steady but subdued, while equity valuations are elevated, suggesting muted long-term returns. REITs appear attractively valued with fading headwinds, offering plausible outperformance as fundamentals improve and rate cuts loom.

The Dividend Growth Trifecta—quality, yield, and growth—remains my core focus for portfolio construction in an expensive market. Industry leaders like Ares Management Corporation and Blackstone Inc. offer superior risk-adjusted returns; I prefer buying dips in top names over chasing value in lower-quality peers. Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF™ is off my buy list due to sector reconstitution and dimmed double-digit dividend growth prospects, despite holding a large position.

The current AI investment boom risks creating a bubble, with funding needs outpacing hyperscalers' cash flows and raising concerns of a lost decade for stocks. AI-related stocks have driven market gains, but overinvestment and high valuations make the S&P 500 (SPY) vulnerable to poor long-term returns. Dividend growth investors should focus on reasonably valued REITs and dividend stocks, which historically outperform during tech downturns.

VictoryShares US Large Cap High Div Volatility Wtd ETF holds 100 large and mid-caps selected by yields and weighted based on volatility. CDL is well-diversified, has value characteristics, and has a focus on utilities and consumer staples. CDL has underperformed SPY and SCHD but leads in total returns among specialized high-dividend, low-volatility ETFs.

AI-driven tech stocks dominate 2025 returns, leaving dividend and high-yield ETFs lagging due to limited AI exposure. REITs face mixed fortunes: ARE and DOC struggle with life science oversupply, while IVT, AMT, ADC, and VICI offer attractive dividend growth and value. My current buy list focuses on undervalued REITs and ETFs with strong dividend growth.

Given heightened economic uncertainty, I am leaning more defensive and sticking with my dividend growth investing strategy, emphasizing diversification and income stability. The frozen housing market, soft labor conditions, and stagnating consumer spending signal potential economic weakness, despite optimism in select sectors like tech. My ETF portfolio review shows shifting leadership, with midstream energy outperforming previously, but preferreds and tech-focused ETFs now leading as trends evolve.