British American Tobacco

BTI

Market cap $111B

Based on the earnings outlook and tax rate projection from its 2025 interim report, British American Tobacco now resembles an equity bond yielding ~12%. To make it more attractive, I also see significant coupon growth potential in the years to come. My growth rate projection is ~5% annually (vs. 6%+ from consensus) based on its strong ROCE and capital allocation flexibility.

This article is part of our monthly series where we highlight five large-cap, relatively safe, dividend-paying companies offering significant discounts to their historical norms. We go over our filtering process to select just five conservative DGI stocks from more than 7,500 companies that are traded on U.S. exchanges, including OTC networks. In addition to the primary list that yields 3.56%, we present two other groups of five DGI stocks each, from moderate to high yields of up to 8%.

BTI remains attractively valued, despite a recent 80% rally off 2024 lows and a modest pullback. Shares offer a 6.1% dividend yield, supported by strong free cash flow. glo Hilo rollout accelerates, with premium pricing and early data in Japan and Poland. Velo Plus gains momentum in the U.S. nicotine pouch market, with over 17% market share, challenging the market leader ZYN.

British American Tobacco is downgraded to a "Hold" after a 46% return, with shares now near fair value. BTI's U.S. operations delivered strong results, offsetting overseas weakness, and management guides toward the upper end of 2025 revenue growth. Valuation justifies a modest P/E premium, but technicals suggest a potential pullback to the $48-$49 range could offer a compelling entry point.

British American Tobacco has transitioned from deep value to fair value as a number of catalysts through 2024/2025 ignite the share price. BTI's smokeless portfolio, especially Velo nicotine pouches, is benefiting from global trends, with the nicotine pouch market projected to grow at a 29% CAGR. At current prices, BTI offers a forward dividend yield of 6.3% plus moderate buybacks, but valuation now approaches fair value, supporting a 'hold' rating.

British American Tobacco remains undervalued, trading at under 12x 2025 earnings and yielding 5.79%, with strong free cash flow generation. BTI's Q2 2025 results showed YoY growth in revenue and profitability, driven by price increases and expansion in smokeless products, now 18.2% of revenue. BTI's strategic transformation focuses on innovation, cost efficiencies, and deleveraging, projecting $58B+ in free cash flow from 2024–2030 to support dividends and buybacks.

Interest rates are one of the most important drivers of asset valuations, directly impacting discount rates and valuations. So, as the Fed lowers rates, yield compression occurs, making it harder to find safe, high-yield investments - now even above 8%. In the current environment, reliable yields of 6% to 8% are still achievable (at scale), while yields above 10% are mostly speculative.

High-yield dividend stocks entice investors with payouts two to four times higher than the S&P 500's 1.4% average yield. But high yield often signals trouble -- sluggish growth, stretched payout ratios, or sector headwinds.

Highlighting 10 S&P-rated companies with 4-7% yields, focusing on dividend growth, credit quality, and undervaluation. Pfizer, Alexandria RE, NNN REIT, AES Corp, and Bristol Myers are identified as undervalued winners and recommended as buys for income-focused investors.

5 Relatively Secure And Cheap Dividend Stocks, Yields Up To 9% (Sept. 2025)