American Express

AXP

Market cap $227B

Beyond analysts' top-and-bottom-line estimates for American Express (AXP), evaluate projections for some of its key metrics to gain a better insight into how the business might have performed for the quarter ended March 2026.

The real magic is per-share earnings growth, not just business growth. Share buybacks quietly amplified Buffett's returns.

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American Express faces near-term earnings risk due to potential sequential spending weakness, particularly in international and travel-related segments. Q1 revenue growth may fall short of street estimates, but I expect a rebound in Q2 as geopolitical tensions ease and comps become favorable. AXP maintains robust capital allocation, with a 34% ROE, strong buybacks, and a 16% dividend increase supporting long-term compounding.

Explore the exciting world of American Express (AXP +1.82%) with our contributing expert analysts in this Motley Fool Scoreboard episode. Check out the video below to gain valuable insights into market trends and potential investment opportunities!

American Express gears up for Q1 earnings as spending trends stay firm, but rising costs and valuation remain key watchpoints.

American Express is set to report Q1 2026 earnings, with market expectations for high-single-digit EPS growth despite recent underperformance. Revenue growth remains supported by fees and net interest income, suggesting continued monetization strength rather than a meaningful improvement in underlying demand. Valuation has already reset from recent highs, but without an upgrade in growth expectations, the current multiple appears fair rather than compelling.

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American Express is rated Buy, leveraging a powerful moat built on high-spending, loyal cardholders and a closed-loop data advantage. AXP's shift toward higher net interest income and increased loan balances has not led to materially higher credit risk, with delinquency rates stable around 1.4%. The company's expansion to third-party issuers and global partnerships has scaled growth, but may modestly erode exclusivity and profitability.

American Express (AXP) closed at $325.76 in the latest trading session, marking a -1% move from the prior day.