AvalonBay Communities

AVB

Market cap $25.5B

ARLINGTON, Va.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES, INC. (NYSE: AVB) (the “Company”) will release its fourth quarter 2025 earnings on February 4, 2026 after the market close. The Company will hold a conference call on February 5, 2026 at 1:00 PM Eastern Time (ET) to discuss its fourth quarter 2025 results. Live Conference Call Details Domestic: (877) 407-9716 International: (201) 493-6779 Webcast: https://investors.avalonbay.com   Details for the Replay of the Conference Call Domestic: (844.

AvalonBay Communities remains a "Hold" as apartment REITs face persistent rent declines and weak demand, despite moderating supply. AVB's strong balance sheet and capital allocation, including $488 million in buybacks and property sales, underpin dividend stability and financial flexibility. Core FFO guidance for 2025 is $11.23–$11.28, with 2.5%–3.5% growth expected in 2026, below consensus due to muted demand recovery.

REITs (MSCI US REIT Index, RMZ) are positioned for multi-year outperformance, with accelerating AFFO growth, healthy balance sheets, and discounted valuations. Despite underperformance versus the S&P 500, REITs offer a credible path to 13-15% annualized total returns via multiple expansion and a 4% dividend yield. Wide NAV discounts create near-term catalysts, as managements deploy asset sales, cost controls, and strategic alternatives to close valuation gaps.

U.S. equity markets climbed to fresh record highs in the Christmas-shortened trading week, buoyed by surprisingly solid GDP data, positive holiday spending trends, and a pullback in global interest rates. The delayed GDP report released this week showed a modest reacceleration in U.S. economic growth in the third-quarter to the strongest pace in two years alongside a cooler-than-expected inflation reading. Precious metals stole the show. Gold, silver, and platinum extended a historic rally fueled by a combination of easing rates, central-bank buying, end-market demand, and investor appetite for hard assets.

AvalonBay is one of the largest apartment landlords, with a 3.9% yield and a generally rising dividend. Realty Income is the net lease giant, offering a yield of 5.7% backed by 30 annual dividend increases.

U.S. equity markets posted mixed performance as surprisingly cool inflation data and soft employment data were tempered by a hawkish pushback from Fed officials and skeptics clinging to inflation fears. The critical CPI report showed inflation easing to four-year lows, a heavily criticized report that may, ironically, be the most accurate inflation reading in several years due to collection limitations. The report "zeroed out" shelter inflation due to incomplete collection, combined with an antiquated and lagged sampling methodology, effectively "correcting" its data by removing the most persistent source of distortion.

REITs remain attractively valued, with many trading at near 10-year high dividend yields. AFFO yield plus AFFO growth is utilized as a scoring system in this article. ARE leads in value but faces risks from declining occupancy and potential AFFO contraction. Others in the top 5 include VICI, IRM, EQIX and PSA.

Some REIT sectors recently suffered a dip. This includes self-storage and apartment REITs. I discuss my top picks.

U.S. equity markets posted mixed performance after an unusually divided Federal Reserve delivered a third-straight rate cut, but signaled a likely "pause" in the easing cycle. Perhaps the last rate cut under the "Powell Fed," the FOMC voted 9-3 to lower the federal funds rate to 3.75%, with two votes to keep rates unchanged. Markets saw hawkish undertones in the updated Economic Projections and commentary from Chair Powell, which emphasized lingering uncertainty around the inflation outlook and lack of conviction in softening labor markets.

AVB lowers its 2025 outlook as slower job growth, softer occupancy and rising costs weigh, even as low future supply and a $3.6B pipeline offer support.