Signal backtest

90.1% of signals have moved 5% in their direction

Every signal is scored against what followed: whether the price moved 5%, 10%, 15% or 20% in the signal’s direction within two years of opening, how long that took, and the return if simply held.

233
signals scored
33%
reached +5%
13
signal patterns

What the data shows

01

Company size

81% of mega-cap signals reached +20%, against 70% overall. Only 5% of signals are mega caps.

02

Distance below what funds paid

Bullish signals that opened 35–50% below what funds paid reached +20% 78% of the time, against 67% for those 5–15% below.

03

Reaching a level vs. holding on

90% of signals reached +5% at some point, but the median bullish signal was +9% two years after opening, and the median bearish one +0.7%.

233 signals opened in the last month · Mid Cap · any distance from what funds paid

Threshold met Not met, but profitable Open Loss

Increased positions: 3× sector average

Bullish

1 signal

100%
5%
5d median
100%
10%
5d median
0%
15%
–
0%
20%
–

Holding value drop: worst 10%

Bearish

33 signals

55%
5%
5d median
30%
10%
6d median
15%
15%
7d median
6%
20%
21d median

Holding value drop: worst 5%

Bearish

22 signals

50%
5%
5d median
27%
10%
6d median
18%
15%
11d median
9%
20%
21d median

Top-performing funds doubled stake

Bullish

18 signals

44%
5%
4d median
11%
10%
5d median
11%
15%
7d median
6%
20%
13d median

Gross inflow: 3× sector average

Bullish

5 signals

40%
5%
3d median
20%
10%
5d median
0%
15%
–
0%
20%
–

Most funds doubling stake vs. market cap peers

Bullish

108 signals

34%
5%
7d median
14%
10%
14d median
8%
15%
13d median
5%
20%
22d median

Top-10 holders: 3× sector average

Bullish

6 signals

33%
5%
4d median
0%
10%
–
0%
15%
–
0%
20%
–

New positions: top 10% of sector

Bullish

42 signals

31%
5%
6d median
10%
10%
11d median
5%
15%
11d median
5%
20%
11d median

Net inflow top 10%, few exits

Bullish

10 signals

30%
5%
6d median
10%
10%
13d median
0%
15%
–
0%
20%
–

Call option value: 3× sector average

Bullish

35 signals

26%
5%
4d median
0%
10%
–
0%
15%
–
0%
20%
–

Net inflow: top 10% of sector

Bullish

64 signals

22%
5%
4d median
8%
10%
5d median
3%
15%
7d median
0%
20%
–

Top-10 holder growth: top 10% of sector

Bullish

6 signals

0%
5%
–
0%
10%
–
0%
15%
–
0%
20%
–

That’s the record behind every signal.

See the latest signals

A threshold counts as met when the price moved that far in the signal’s direction within two years of opening. Signals opened less than two years ago that haven’t met a threshold yet are open. Profitable or loss is the return two years after opening, for signals that didn’t meet a threshold. Returns if held use each signal’s opening price. Past results do not guarantee future returns.