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Signal backtest

90% of signals have moved 5% in their direction

Every signal is scored against what followed: whether the price moved 5%, 10%, 15% or 20% in the signal’s direction within two years of opening, how long that took, and the return if simply held.

155
signals scored
21.3%
reached +5%
13
signal patterns

What the data shows

01

Company size

81% of mega-cap signals reached +20%, against 70% overall. Only 5% of signals are mega caps.

02

Distance below what funds paid

Bullish signals that opened 35–50% below what funds paid reached +20% 78% of the time, against 67% for those 5–15% below.

03

Reaching a level vs. holding on

90% of signals reached +5% at some point, but the median bullish signal was +9.1% two years after opening, and the median bearish one +0.8%.

Short term Long term
Opened
1M 3M 6M 12M 24M All time
Size
All Mega Cap Large Cap Mid Cap Small Cap Micro Cap
From what funds paid
Any 5–15% 20–30% 35–50%

155 signals opened in the last month · all sizes · 35–50% from what funds paid

Threshold met Not met, but profitable Open Loss

Net inflow top 10%, few exits

Bullish

15 signals

40%
5%
5d median
0%
10%
–
0%
15%
–
0%
20%
–

Holding value drop: worst 5%

Bearish

11 signals

36%
5%
2d median
9%
10%
1d median
9%
15%
2d median
0%
20%
–

Increased positions: 3× sector average

Bullish

3 signals

33%
5%
5d median
33%
10%
5d median
0%
15%
–
0%
20%
–

Holding value drop: worst 10%

Bearish

17 signals

29%
5%
3d median
6%
10%
1d median
6%
15%
2d median
0%
20%
–

Net inflow: top 10% of sector

Bullish

34 signals

29%
5%
5d median
12%
10%
6d median
3%
15%
10d median
0%
20%
–

New positions: top 10% of sector

Bullish

32 signals

28%
5%
4d median
19%
10%
7d median
9%
15%
9d median
9%
20%
13d median

Top-10 holders: 3× sector average

Bullish

5 signals

20%
5%
6d median
20%
10%
7d median
0%
15%
–
0%
20%
–

Most funds doubling stake vs. market cap peers

Bullish

90 signals

16%
5%
4d median
6%
10%
5d median
4%
15%
6d median
2%
20%
9d median

Call option value: 3× sector average

Bullish

24 signals

13%
5%
4d median
4%
10%
6d median
4%
15%
9d median
4%
20%
15d median

Gross inflow: 3× sector average

Bullish

10 signals

10%
5%
5d median
10%
10%
5d median
0%
15%
–
0%
20%
–

New positions: 3× sector average

Bullish

5 signals

0%
5%
–
0%
10%
–
0%
15%
–
0%
20%
–

Top-10 holder growth: top 10% of sector

Bullish

5 signals

0%
5%
–
0%
10%
–
0%
15%
–
0%
20%
–

Top-performing funds doubled stake

Bullish

3 signals

0%
5%
–
0%
10%
–
0%
15%
–
0%
20%
–

That’s the record behind every signal.

See the latest signals

A threshold counts as met when the price moved that far in the signal’s direction within two years of opening. Signals opened less than two years ago that haven’t met a threshold yet are open. Profitable or loss is the return two years after opening, for signals that didn’t meet a threshold. Returns if held use each signal’s opening price. Past results do not guarantee future returns.