Signal backtest

90.1% of signals have moved 5% in their direction

Every signal is scored against what followed: whether the price moved 5%, 10%, 15% or 20% in the signal’s direction within two years of opening, how long that took, and the return if simply held.

2,264
signals scored
79.6%
reached +5%
13
signal patterns

What the data shows

01

Company size

81% of mega-cap signals reached +20%, against 70% overall. Only 5% of signals are mega caps.

02

Distance below what funds paid

Bullish signals that opened 35–50% below what funds paid reached +20% 78% of the time, against 67% for those 5–15% below.

03

Reaching a level vs. holding on

90% of signals reached +5% at some point, but the median bullish signal was +9% two years after opening, and the median bearish one +0.7%.

2,264 signals opened in the last 12 months · all sizes · 20–30% from what funds paid

Threshold met Not met, but profitable Open Loss

Top-10 holder growth: top 10% of sector

Bullish

74 signals

92%
5%
9d median
81%
10%
23d median
70%
15%
34d median
59%
20%
55d median

Increased positions: 3× sector average

Bullish

220 signals

90%
5%
13d median
78%
10%
30d median
68%
15%
56d median
57%
20%
71d median

Top-10 holders: 3× sector average

Bullish

176 signals

86%
5%
9d median
76%
10%
24d median
66%
15%
39d median
54%
20%
58d median

Top-performing funds doubled stake

Bullish

179 signals

86%
5%
10d median
71%
10%
20d median
64%
15%
36d median
49%
20%
45d median

Call option value: 3× sector average

Bullish

368 signals

85%
5%
9d median
75%
10%
21d median
67%
15%
39d median
59%
20%
54d median

Gross inflow: 3× sector average

Bullish

358 signals

84%
5%
11d median
73%
10%
26d median
63%
15%
47d median
52%
20%
69d median

New positions: top 10% of sector

Bullish

477 signals

84%
5%
10d median
72%
10%
24d median
63%
15%
41d median
55%
20%
56d median

New positions: 3× sector average

Bullish

157 signals

83%
5%
11d median
75%
10%
22d median
68%
15%
45d median
59%
20%
66d median

Most funds doubling stake vs. market cap peers

Bullish

1,003 signals

81%
5%
9d median
71%
10%
20d median
65%
15%
34d median
57%
20%
45d median

Net inflow: top 10% of sector

Bullish

536 signals

80%
5%
11d median
70%
10%
24d median
62%
15%
43d median
54%
20%
60d median

Holding value drop: worst 5%

Bearish

269 signals

80%
5%
11d median
68%
10%
24d median
57%
15%
42d median
45%
20%
49d median

Holding value drop: worst 10%

Bearish

562 signals

78%
5%
12d median
67%
10%
24d median
56%
15%
36d median
46%
20%
44d median

Net inflow top 10%, few exits

Bullish

56 signals

54%
5%
7d median
38%
10%
17d median
34%
15%
24d median
30%
20%
40d median

That’s the record behind every signal.

See the latest signals

A threshold counts as met when the price moved that far in the signal’s direction within two years of opening. Signals opened less than two years ago that haven’t met a threshold yet are open. Profitable or loss is the return two years after opening, for signals that didn’t meet a threshold. Returns if held use each signal’s opening price. Past results do not guarantee future returns.