Signal backtest
Every signal is scored against what followed: whether the price moved 5%, 10%, 15% or 20% in the signal’s direction within two years of opening, how long that took, and the return if simply held.
81% of mega-cap signals reached +20%, against 70% overall. Only 5% of signals are mega caps.
Bullish signals that opened 35–50% below what funds paid reached +20% 78% of the time, against 67% for those 5–15% below.
90% of signals reached +5% at some point, but the median bullish signal was +9.1% two years after opening, and the median bearish one +0.8%.
14,575 signals opened in the last 24 months · all sizes · any distance from what funds paid
675 signals
Median return if held
1,324 signals
Median return if held
1,012 signals
Median return if held
2,446 signals
Median return if held
1,613 signals
Median return if held
2,002 signals
Median return if held
3,641 signals
Median return if held
2,828 signals
Median return if held
5,793 signals
Median return if held
1,781 signals
Median return if held
3,989 signals
Median return if held
3,812 signals
Median return if held
325 signals
Median return if held
That’s the record behind every signal.
See the latest signalsA threshold counts as met when the price moved that far in the signal’s direction within two years of opening. Signals opened less than two years ago that haven’t met a threshold yet are open. Profitable or loss is the return two years after opening, for signals that didn’t meet a threshold. Returns if held use each signal’s opening price. Past results do not guarantee future returns.