Signal backtest

90% of signals have moved 5% in their direction

Every signal is scored against what followed: whether the price moved 5%, 10%, 15% or 20% in the signal’s direction within two years of opening, how long that took, and the return if simply held.

418
signals scored
81.1%
reached +5%
13
signal patterns

What the data shows

01

Company size

81% of mega-cap signals reached +20%, against 70% overall. Only 5% of signals are mega caps.

02

Distance below what funds paid

Bullish signals that opened 35–50% below what funds paid reached +20% 78% of the time, against 67% for those 5–15% below.

03

Reaching a level vs. holding on

90% of signals reached +5% at some point, but the median bullish signal was +9.1% two years after opening, and the median bearish one +0.8%.

418 signals opened in the last 24 months · Micro Cap · any distance from what funds paid

Threshold met Not met, but profitable Open Loss

Holding value drop: worst 10%

Bearish

181 signals

99%
5%
7d median
98%
10%
18d median
98%
15%
32d median
96%
20%
44d median

Holding value drop: worst 5%

Bearish

118 signals

99%
5%
7d median
97%
10%
19d median
97%
15%
33d median
94%
20%
44d median

Top-performing funds doubled stake

Bullish

11 signals

91%
5%
5d median
91%
10%
21d median
73%
15%
30d median
64%
20%
21d median

Most funds doubling stake vs. market cap peers

Bullish

210 signals

68%
5%
8d median
58%
10%
15d median
46%
15%
26d median
40%
20%
31d median

Net inflow: top 10% of sector

Bullish

23 signals

52%
5%
4d median
43%
10%
9d median
35%
15%
16d median
30%
20%
17d median

Net inflow top 10%, few exits

Bullish

11 signals

45%
5%
7d median
36%
10%
22d median
27%
15%
19d median
27%
20%
21d median

That’s the record behind every signal.

See the latest signals

A threshold counts as met when the price moved that far in the signal’s direction within two years of opening. Signals opened less than two years ago that haven’t met a threshold yet are open. Profitable or loss is the return two years after opening, for signals that didn’t meet a threshold. Returns if held use each signal’s opening price. Past results do not guarantee future returns.