Signal backtest
Every signal is scored against what followed: whether the price moved 5%, 10%, 15% or 20% in the signal’s direction within two years of opening, how long that took, and the return if simply held.
81% of mega-cap signals reached +20%, against 70% overall. Only 5% of signals are mega caps.
Bullish signals that opened 35–50% below what funds paid reached +20% 78% of the time, against 67% for those 5–15% below.
90% of signals reached +5% at some point, but the median bullish signal was +9.1% two years after opening, and the median bearish one +0.8%.
2,156 signals opened in the last 6 months · all sizes · 5–15% from what funds paid
612 signals
Median return if held
294 signals
Median return if held
93 signals
Median return if held
155 signals
Median return if held
183 signals
Median return if held
391 signals
Median return if held
455 signals
Median return if held
316 signals
Median return if held
706 signals
Median return if held
633 signals
Median return if held
353 signals
Median return if held
638 signals
Median return if held
29 signals
Median return if held
That’s the record behind every signal.
See the latest signalsA threshold counts as met when the price moved that far in the signal’s direction within two years of opening. Signals opened less than two years ago that haven’t met a threshold yet are open. Profitable or loss is the return two years after opening, for signals that didn’t meet a threshold. Returns if held use each signal’s opening price. Past results do not guarantee future returns.