Signal backtest
Every signal is scored against what followed: whether the price moved 5%, 10%, 15% or 20% in the signal’s direction within two years of opening, how long that took, and the return if simply held.
81% of mega-cap signals reached +20%, against 70% overall. Only 5% of signals are mega caps.
Bullish signals that opened 35–50% below what funds paid reached +20% 78% of the time, against 67% for those 5–15% below.
90% of signals reached +5% at some point, but the median bullish signal was +9.1% two years after opening, and the median bearish one +0.8%.
1,236 signals opened in the last 3 months · all sizes · 5–15% from what funds paid
148 signals
Median return if held
343 signals
Median return if held
68 signals
Median return if held
81 signals
Median return if held
58 signals
Median return if held
207 signals
Median return if held
349 signals
Median return if held
410 signals
Median return if held
228 signals
Median return if held
154 signals
Median return if held
337 signals
Median return if held
174 signals
Median return if held
27 signals
Median return if held
That’s the record behind every signal.
See the latest signalsA threshold counts as met when the price moved that far in the signal’s direction within two years of opening. Signals opened less than two years ago that haven’t met a threshold yet are open. Profitable or loss is the return two years after opening, for signals that didn’t meet a threshold. Returns if held use each signal’s opening price. Past results do not guarantee future returns.