Signal backtest
Every signal is scored against what followed: whether the price moved 5%, 10%, 15% or 20% in the signal’s direction within two years of opening, how long that took, and the return if simply held.
81% of mega-cap signals reached +20%, against 70% overall. Only 5% of signals are mega caps.
Bullish signals that opened 35–50% below what funds paid reached +20% 78% of the time, against 67% for those 5–15% below.
90% of signals reached +5% at some point, but the median bullish signal was +9% two years after opening, and the median bearish one +0.7%.
7,777 signals opened in the last 24 months · all sizes · 5–15% from what funds paid
419 signals
Median return if held
899 signals
Median return if held
595 signals
Median return if held
1,545 signals
Median return if held
1,204 signals
Median return if held
1,935 signals
Median return if held
2,467 signals
Median return if held
1,456 signals
Median return if held
2,545 signals
Median return if held
2,680 signals
Median return if held
807 signals
Median return if held
1,881 signals
Median return if held
110 signals
Median return if held
That’s the record behind every signal.
See the latest signalsA threshold counts as met when the price moved that far in the signal’s direction within two years of opening. Signals opened less than two years ago that haven’t met a threshold yet are open. Profitable or loss is the return two years after opening, for signals that didn’t meet a threshold. Returns if held use each signal’s opening price. Past results do not guarantee future returns.