Signal backtest

90% of signals have moved 5% in their direction

Every signal is scored against what followed: whether the price moved 5%, 10%, 15% or 20% in the signal’s direction within two years of opening, how long that took, and the return if simply held.

1,651
signals scored
82.1%
reached +5%
13
signal patterns

What the data shows

01

Company size

81% of mega-cap signals reached +20%, against 70% overall. Only 5% of signals are mega caps.

02

Distance below what funds paid

Bullish signals that opened 35–50% below what funds paid reached +20% 78% of the time, against 67% for those 5–15% below.

03

Reaching a level vs. holding on

90% of signals reached +5% at some point, but the median bullish signal was +9.1% two years after opening, and the median bearish one +0.8%.

1,651 signals opened in the last 24 months · Small Cap · 5–15% from what funds paid

Threshold met Not met, but profitable Open Loss

Gross inflow: 3× sector average

Bullish

1 signal

100%
5%
6d median
100%
10%
7d median
0%
15%
–
0%
20%
–

New positions: 3× sector average

Bullish

3 signals

100%
5%
13d median
100%
10%
15d median
67%
15%
32d median
67%
20%
62d median

Top-performing funds doubled stake

Bullish

44 signals

89%
5%
8d median
70%
10%
20d median
64%
15%
26d median
57%
20%
29d median

Holding value drop: worst 5%

Bearish

351 signals

87%
5%
13d median
80%
10%
25d median
72%
15%
37d median
61%
20%
58d median

Holding value drop: worst 10%

Bearish

736 signals

86%
5%
14d median
77%
10%
27d median
68%
15%
42d median
59%
20%
63d median

New positions: top 10% of sector

Bullish

17 signals

82%
5%
12d median
53%
10%
14d median
41%
15%
17d median
35%
20%
30d median

Most funds doubling stake vs. market cap peers

Bullish

838 signals

79%
5%
12d median
70%
10%
28d median
61%
15%
44d median
53%
20%
58d median

Top-10 holder growth: top 10% of sector

Bullish

14 signals

71%
5%
6d median
43%
10%
3d median
29%
15%
20d median
29%
20%
21d median

Call option value: 3× sector average

Bullish

10 signals

70%
5%
49d median
60%
10%
58d median
60%
15%
76d median
50%
20%
75d median

Net inflow: top 10% of sector

Bullish

33 signals

58%
5%
13d median
42%
10%
15d median
36%
15%
48d median
33%
20%
98d median

Net inflow top 10%, few exits

Bullish

23 signals

52%
5%
6d median
35%
10%
32d median
30%
15%
59d median
30%
20%
108d median

That’s the record behind every signal.

See the latest signals

A threshold counts as met when the price moved that far in the signal’s direction within two years of opening. Signals opened less than two years ago that haven’t met a threshold yet are open. Profitable or loss is the return two years after opening, for signals that didn’t meet a threshold. Returns if held use each signal’s opening price. Past results do not guarantee future returns.