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Signal backtest

90.1% of signals have moved 5% in their direction

Every signal is scored against what followed: whether the price moved 5%, 10%, 15% or 20% in the signal’s direction within two years of opening, how long that took, and the return if simply held.

590
signals scored
68.5%
reached +5%
13
signal patterns

What the data shows

01

Company size

81% of mega-cap signals reached +20%, against 70% overall. Only 5% of signals are mega caps.

02

Distance below what funds paid

Bullish signals that opened 35–50% below what funds paid reached +20% 78% of the time, against 67% for those 5–15% below.

03

Reaching a level vs. holding on

90% of signals reached +5% at some point, but the median bullish signal was +9% two years after opening, and the median bearish one +0.7%.

Short term Long term
Opened
1M 3M 6M 12M 24M All time
Size
All Mega Cap Large Cap Mid Cap Small Cap Micro Cap
From what funds paid
Any 5–15% 20–30% 35–50%

590 signals opened in the last 6 months · Mid Cap · 5–15% from what funds paid

Threshold met Not met, but profitable Open Loss

Increased positions: 3× sector average

Bullish

1 signal

100%
5%
4d median
100%
10%
11d median
100%
15%
15d median
0%
20%
–

Gross inflow: 3× sector average

Bullish

5 signals

80%
5%
3d median
80%
10%
14d median
60%
15%
17d median
40%
20%
29d median

Top-performing funds doubled stake

Bullish

41 signals

78%
5%
10d median
59%
10%
18d median
39%
15%
23d median
22%
20%
22d median

Holding value drop: worst 10%

Bearish

235 signals

78%
5%
12d median
63%
10%
21d median
47%
15%
32d median
28%
20%
36d median

Holding value drop: worst 5%

Bearish

125 signals

77%
5%
11d median
61%
10%
20d median
46%
15%
32d median
31%
20%
36d median

Top-10 holder growth: top 10% of sector

Bullish

16 signals

69%
5%
34d median
50%
10%
24d median
38%
15%
24d median
31%
20%
25d median

New positions: 3× sector average

Bullish

3 signals

67%
5%
40d median
33%
10%
54d median
0%
15%
–
0%
20%
–

Most funds doubling stake vs. market cap peers

Bullish

238 signals

66%
5%
10d median
52%
10%
14d median
40%
15%
24d median
34%
20%
36d median

Call option value: 3× sector average

Bullish

33 signals

64%
5%
3d median
48%
10%
8d median
39%
15%
11d median
30%
20%
18d median

New positions: top 10% of sector

Bullish

42 signals

55%
5%
8d median
33%
10%
17d median
24%
15%
18d median
21%
20%
25d median

Top-10 holders: 3× sector average

Bullish

4 signals

50%
5%
44d median
0%
10%
–
0%
15%
–
0%
20%
–

Net inflow: top 10% of sector

Bullish

62 signals

37%
5%
8d median
19%
10%
13d median
11%
15%
17d median
8%
20%
35d median

Net inflow top 10%, few exits

Bullish

6 signals

33%
5%
9d median
17%
10%
2d median
0%
15%
–
0%
20%
–

That’s the record behind every signal.

See the latest signals

A threshold counts as met when the price moved that far in the signal’s direction within two years of opening. Signals opened less than two years ago that haven’t met a threshold yet are open. Profitable or loss is the return two years after opening, for signals that didn’t meet a threshold. Returns if held use each signal’s opening price. Past results do not guarantee future returns.