Signal backtest

90% of signals have moved 5% in their direction

Every signal is scored against what followed: whether the price moved 5%, 10%, 15% or 20% in the signal’s direction within two years of opening, how long that took, and the return if simply held.

360
signals scored
58.6%
reached +5%
13
signal patterns

What the data shows

01

Company size

81% of mega-cap signals reached +20%, against 70% overall. Only 5% of signals are mega caps.

02

Distance below what funds paid

Bullish signals that opened 35–50% below what funds paid reached +20% 78% of the time, against 67% for those 5–15% below.

03

Reaching a level vs. holding on

90% of signals reached +5% at some point, but the median bullish signal was +9.1% two years after opening, and the median bearish one +0.8%.

360 signals opened in the last 3 months · Mid Cap · 5–15% from what funds paid

Threshold met Not met, but profitable Open Loss

Increased positions: 3× sector average

Bullish

1 signal

100%
5%
4d median
100%
10%
11d median
100%
15%
15d median
0%
20%
–

New positions: 3× sector average

Bullish

1 signal

100%
5%
18d median
100%
10%
54d median
0%
15%
–
0%
20%
–

Holding value drop: worst 10%

Bearish

131 signals

85%
5%
13d median
65%
10%
25d median
46%
15%
33d median
25%
20%
37d median

Holding value drop: worst 5%

Bearish

78 signals

85%
5%
13d median
63%
10%
22d median
47%
15%
33d median
29%
20%
36d median

Gross inflow: 3× sector average

Bullish

5 signals

80%
5%
3d median
80%
10%
14d median
60%
15%
17d median
40%
20%
29d median

Top-10 holder growth: top 10% of sector

Bullish

15 signals

80%
5%
28d median
60%
10%
23d median
40%
15%
24d median
33%
20%
25d median

Top-performing funds doubled stake

Bullish

23 signals

65%
5%
10d median
39%
10%
14d median
30%
15%
18d median
13%
20%
19d median

New positions: top 10% of sector

Bullish

35 signals

46%
5%
5d median
29%
10%
14d median
23%
15%
17d median
20%
20%
21d median

Call option value: 3× sector average

Bullish

22 signals

45%
5%
4d median
23%
10%
17d median
23%
15%
17d median
18%
20%
33d median

Most funds doubling stake vs. market cap peers

Bullish

136 signals

41%
5%
5d median
22%
10%
11d median
13%
15%
18d median
10%
20%
23d median

Net inflow top 10%, few exits

Bullish

6 signals

33%
5%
9d median
17%
10%
2d median
0%
15%
–
0%
20%
–

Net inflow: top 10% of sector

Bullish

57 signals

33%
5%
5d median
16%
10%
11d median
11%
15%
17d median
7%
20%
33d median

Top-10 holders: 3× sector average

Bullish

3 signals

33%
5%
7d median
0%
10%
–
0%
15%
–
0%
20%
–

That’s the record behind every signal.

See the latest signals

A threshold counts as met when the price moved that far in the signal’s direction within two years of opening. Signals opened less than two years ago that haven’t met a threshold yet are open. Profitable or loss is the return two years after opening, for signals that didn’t meet a threshold. Returns if held use each signal’s opening price. Past results do not guarantee future returns.