Signal backtest

90.1% of signals have moved 5% in their direction

Every signal is scored against what followed: whether the price moved 5%, 10%, 15% or 20% in the signal’s direction within two years of opening, how long that took, and the return if simply held.

1,998
signals scored
83%
reached +5%
13
signal patterns

What the data shows

01

Company size

81% of mega-cap signals reached +20%, against 70% overall. Only 5% of signals are mega caps.

02

Distance below what funds paid

Bullish signals that opened 35–50% below what funds paid reached +20% 78% of the time, against 67% for those 5–15% below.

03

Reaching a level vs. holding on

90% of signals reached +5% at some point, but the median bullish signal was +9% two years after opening, and the median bearish one +0.7%.

1,998 signals opened in the last 24 months · Mid Cap · 5–15% from what funds paid

Threshold met Not met, but profitable Open Loss

Increased positions: 3× sector average

Bullish

4 signals

100%
5%
7d median
100%
10%
40d median
100%
15%
54d median
75%
20%
94d median

Top-performing funds doubled stake

Bullish

114 signals

91%
5%
12d median
81%
10%
27d median
68%
15%
43d median
55%
20%
81d median

New positions: 3× sector average

Bullish

19 signals

89%
5%
17d median
79%
10%
34d median
68%
15%
74d median
53%
20%
56d median

Net inflow top 10%, few exits

Bullish

64 signals

89%
5%
13d median
84%
10%
27d median
75%
15%
34d median
69%
20%
53d median

Gross inflow: 3× sector average

Bullish

33 signals

88%
5%
11d median
76%
10%
24d median
64%
15%
38d median
55%
20%
47d median

Most funds doubling stake vs. market cap peers

Bullish

887 signals

86%
5%
15d median
78%
10%
36d median
70%
15%
57d median
64%
20%
77d median

Top-10 holder growth: top 10% of sector

Bullish

55 signals

85%
5%
21d median
75%
10%
35d median
64%
15%
42d median
56%
20%
48d median

Top-10 holders: 3× sector average

Bullish

12 signals

83%
5%
15d median
67%
10%
39d median
58%
15%
41d median
50%
20%
70d median

Holding value drop: worst 10%

Bearish

664 signals

80%
5%
13d median
69%
10%
30d median
57%
15%
47d median
46%
20%
69d median

Net inflow: top 10% of sector

Bullish

324 signals

80%
5%
17d median
70%
10%
35d median
62%
15%
69d median
56%
20%
99d median

Call option value: 3× sector average

Bullish

99 signals

80%
5%
8d median
71%
10%
31d median
65%
15%
42d median
54%
20%
55d median

Holding value drop: worst 5%

Bearish

291 signals

79%
5%
11d median
67%
10%
22d median
54%
15%
36d median
45%
20%
50d median

New positions: top 10% of sector

Bullish

123 signals

76%
5%
13d median
61%
10%
25d median
52%
15%
30d median
43%
20%
45d median

That’s the record behind every signal.

See the latest signals

A threshold counts as met when the price moved that far in the signal’s direction within two years of opening. Signals opened less than two years ago that haven’t met a threshold yet are open. Profitable or loss is the return two years after opening, for signals that didn’t meet a threshold. Returns if held use each signal’s opening price. Past results do not guarantee future returns.