Signal backtest

90.1% of signals have moved 5% in their direction

Every signal is scored against what followed: whether the price moved 5%, 10%, 15% or 20% in the signal’s direction within two years of opening, how long that took, and the return if simply held.

1,068
signals scored
77.2%
reached +5%
13
signal patterns

What the data shows

01

Company size

81% of mega-cap signals reached +20%, against 70% overall. Only 5% of signals are mega caps.

02

Distance below what funds paid

Bullish signals that opened 35–50% below what funds paid reached +20% 78% of the time, against 67% for those 5–15% below.

03

Reaching a level vs. holding on

90% of signals reached +5% at some point, but the median bullish signal was +9% two years after opening, and the median bearish one +0.7%.

1,068 signals opened in the last 12 months · Mid Cap · 5–15% from what funds paid

Threshold met Not met, but profitable Open Loss

Increased positions: 3× sector average

Bullish

2 signals

100%
5%
8d median
100%
10%
35d median
100%
15%
44d median
50%
20%
94d median

New positions: 3× sector average

Bullish

13 signals

92%
5%
39d median
77%
10%
60d median
62%
15%
66d median
38%
20%
54d median

Top-performing funds doubled stake

Bullish

79 signals

87%
5%
8d median
75%
10%
19d median
58%
15%
28d median
47%
20%
61d median

Gross inflow: 3× sector average

Bullish

15 signals

87%
5%
11d median
73%
10%
19d median
60%
15%
21d median
47%
20%
32d median

Most funds doubling stake vs. market cap peers

Bullish

464 signals

80%
5%
12d median
69%
10%
24d median
58%
15%
43d median
51%
20%
55d median

Holding value drop: worst 10%

Bearish

367 signals

78%
5%
14d median
66%
10%
27d median
54%
15%
37d median
38%
20%
50d median

Call option value: 3× sector average

Bullish

74 signals

77%
5%
7d median
68%
10%
22d median
61%
15%
38d median
49%
20%
46d median

Top-10 holder growth: top 10% of sector

Bullish

21 signals

76%
5%
20d median
57%
10%
22d median
48%
15%
29d median
43%
20%
30d median

Holding value drop: worst 5%

Bearish

170 signals

76%
5%
11d median
62%
10%
20d median
51%
15%
33d median
38%
20%
42d median

Top-10 holders: 3× sector average

Bullish

8 signals

75%
5%
15d median
50%
10%
48d median
50%
15%
69d median
50%
20%
70d median

Net inflow top 10%, few exits

Bullish

25 signals

72%
5%
17d median
64%
10%
24d median
52%
15%
28d median
48%
20%
41d median

New positions: top 10% of sector

Bullish

84 signals

71%
5%
11d median
57%
10%
19d median
50%
15%
27d median
44%
20%
32d median

Net inflow: top 10% of sector

Bullish

131 signals

61%
5%
12d median
48%
10%
22d median
41%
15%
52d median
35%
20%
65d median

That’s the record behind every signal.

See the latest signals

A threshold counts as met when the price moved that far in the signal’s direction within two years of opening. Signals opened less than two years ago that haven’t met a threshold yet are open. Profitable or loss is the return two years after opening, for signals that didn’t meet a threshold. Returns if held use each signal’s opening price. Past results do not guarantee future returns.