Signal backtest

90% of signals have moved 5% in their direction

Every signal is scored against what followed: whether the price moved 5%, 10%, 15% or 20% in the signal’s direction within two years of opening, how long that took, and the return if simply held.

94
signals scored
29.8%
reached +5%
13
signal patterns

What the data shows

01

Company size

81% of mega-cap signals reached +20%, against 70% overall. Only 5% of signals are mega caps.

02

Distance below what funds paid

Bullish signals that opened 35–50% below what funds paid reached +20% 78% of the time, against 67% for those 5–15% below.

03

Reaching a level vs. holding on

90% of signals reached +5% at some point, but the median bullish signal was +9.1% two years after opening, and the median bearish one +0.8%.

94 signals opened in the last month · Mid Cap · 5–15% from what funds paid

Threshold met Not met, but profitable Open Loss

Holding value drop: worst 10%

Bearish

11 signals

82%
5%
4d median
45%
10%
6d median
27%
15%
15d median
18%
20%
21d median

Holding value drop: worst 5%

Bearish

8 signals

75%
5%
5d median
25%
10%
11d median
25%
15%
17d median
25%
20%
21d median

Top-10 holders: 3× sector average

Bullish

3 signals

33%
5%
7d median
0%
10%
–
0%
15%
–
0%
20%
–

Top-performing funds doubled stake

Bullish

6 signals

33%
5%
7d median
17%
10%
4d median
17%
15%
4d median
0%
20%
–

Most funds doubling stake vs. market cap peers

Bullish

46 signals

26%
5%
10d median
9%
10%
10d median
4%
15%
13d median
2%
20%
24d median

Call option value: 3× sector average

Bullish

11 signals

18%
5%
6d median
0%
10%
–
0%
15%
–
0%
20%
–

New positions: top 10% of sector

Bullish

12 signals

17%
5%
7d median
0%
10%
–
0%
15%
–
0%
20%
–

Net inflow: top 10% of sector

Bullish

26 signals

12%
5%
4d median
4%
10%
4d median
4%
15%
4d median
0%
20%
–

Gross inflow: 3× sector average

Bullish

1 signal

0%
5%
–
0%
10%
–
0%
15%
–
0%
20%
–

Top-10 holder growth: top 10% of sector

Bullish

2 signals

0%
5%
–
0%
10%
–
0%
15%
–
0%
20%
–

That’s the record behind every signal.

See the latest signals

A threshold counts as met when the price moved that far in the signal’s direction within two years of opening. Signals opened less than two years ago that haven’t met a threshold yet are open. Profitable or loss is the return two years after opening, for signals that didn’t meet a threshold. Returns if held use each signal’s opening price. Past results do not guarantee future returns.